Update 12/1: January Effect Candidates 2014/2015

AERO, ARNA, ATTBF, BTU, CALL, CARA CBIS, CDE, CLF, GBLX, GSK, NCT, OCN, PBR, RIG, SODA, WLT

The first round of price action by this season”s top January Effect candidates was interesting. In all, every base was covered in my introductory comments:
“Some may have bottomed already… Some have yet to bottom…” Don”t forget the last base, which can matter most: And some may not be bottoming at all.”

Energy sector stocks were mixed until China”s surprise rate cut, which proved to be only a last gasp before sliding into OPEC”s Thanksgiving meeting, and then plunging out of it. The sector seems not to be bottoming at all. That macro-fundamental development helps to explain why their individual patterns almost all allowed for a fresh low. But the potential fresh lows were to be only temporary, which will be put to the test this week.

Precious Metals have begun plunging, too. One month ago, very few could even be considered as possible January Effect candidates. But this slide still has time to unleash another round of tax loss selling that forms a bottom. Some issues from the sector might be added next week.

Not all Marijuana sector candidates continued their declines. Many issues had come into support, already reacting to news from the election cycle. This week is their time to prove that tax loss selling pressures have been largely satisfied. I have add two new candidates.

We”ll review the coverage and discuss entry parameters during Livestock. Meanwhile, helpful confirmations that a signal is triggering are expanding volume into price strength, and maintaining the price trigger through the close.

Nov 17 January Effect candidates introduction
linked here.
Oct 9 January Effect webinar
linked here.

.		support	resistance	stop	target
AERO	Aerogrow International Inc.	3.43	4.60	3.27	7.40
	12/1: ADDING COVERAGE — Volume is relatively thin, and should expand noticeably to help confirm a recovery attempt.
ARNA	Arena Pharaceuticals Inc.	3.80	4.55	3.70	6.00
	12/1: Consolidating for a week under its original 4.20 support, while volume has been contracting. Parameters lowered.
ATTBF	Abattis Bioceuticals Corp.	0.155	0.202	0.145	0.335
	12/1: Spent several days testing .135 support before ending the week back at .202 resistance. Raised stop.
BTU	Peabody Energy Corp.	9.40	12.65	8.80	16.25
	12/1: One more new low couldn”t be discounted, and support should be tested Monday morning to finally flush out remaining sellers. Parameters unchanged.
CALL	magicJack VocalTec Ltd.	7.90	9.65	7.50	12.25
	12/1: Still testing 8.60 support on fresh lows, while volume contracts sharply. Lowered parameters.
CARA	Cara Therapeutics Inc.	8.35	10.00	8.05	15.75
	12/1: ADDING COVERAGE — Volume is relatively thin, but a corrective dip has been completed, so extending almost any higher on expanding volume would be credible.
CBIS	Cannabis Science, Inc.	0.057	0.077	0.055	0.125
	12/1: Testing .06 support while volume continues contracting. Lowered parameters.
CDE	Coeur Mining, Inc.	3.65	5.05	3.00	7.85
	12/1: Choppy but essentially unchanged in two weeks, should open the week under pressure and possibly test support. Parameters unchanged.
CLF	Cliffs Natural Resources Inc.	8.80	12.10	8.00	16.20
	12/1: Test of 8.80 support had held its 8.00 stop before bouncing to 10.00, before retesting 8.80 and holding. Will lower parameters if stopped out.
GBLX	Growblox Sciences, Inc.	—	0.75	0.64	1.43
	12/1: RSI is improving into fresh lows, but a high-volume surge is needed to shock the system into reversing its trend. Removed support parameter.
GSK	GlaxoSmithKline plc	45.10	46.35	44.30	50.60
	12/1: Has yet to extend since closing above 46.35 resistance, while volume is contracting. Volume and price surge is needed to avoid another downdraft. Parameters unchanged.
NCT	Newcastle Investment Corp.	4.55	5.05	4.45	6.20
	12/1: Pullback hasn”t been so much “short-lived” as it was shallow. Now attacking resistance, but volume has much room for improvement. Parameters unchanged.
OCN	Ocwen Financial Corp.	20.75	24.50	18.90	27.50
	12/1: Retesting resistance, enough to have chipped away at it for a fresh high to be credible for launching a recovery leg. Parameters unchanged.
PBR	Petrobras	9.35	10.85	9.15	13.35
	12/1: Ranging has tested both parameters above and below, with another support test likely in the wake of OPEC news. Parameters widened.
RIG	Transocean Ltd.	—	—	—	—
	12/1: Gapped through 24.85 support and extending sharply while gapping down. Behaving as if another shoe will be dropping, so this has become a “Falling Knife” pattern. January Effect candidacy is suspended, perhaps until December 31. Suspended parameters.
SODA	SodaStream International Ltd.	21.80	23.70	20.60	28.05
	12/1: Firming up to 23.70 resistance has reacted down to test 21.80, which should reverse back up without delay if the bottoming pattern is valid. Parameters unchanged.
WLT	Walter Energy, Inc.	2.55	3.35	2.25	5.05
	12/1: Firmed back up to 3.35 resistance while volume has been contracting, leaving little reason for the pattern to further delay launching a rally leg. Parameters unchanged.