Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2716.00 | 2715.00 |
| …would target | 2721.50 | 2720.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2704.00 | 2703.00 |
| …would target | 2698.50 | 2697.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Sunday night’s 21-point range wasn’t extremely wide, but volatility made the most of its range. The open’s blip-up to 2712.75 had reversed down 12 points to 2700.50. And Europe’s opens had launched a 17-point surge up to 2721.50. Ranging choppily into Monday’s 2714.50 open was retraced back under 2712.00 resistance during the opening 15 minutes of volatility. The morning and afternoon held tests of 2705.50 as support.
That 2705.50-2712.00 range defined the room for noise around 2708.00-2709.00, which also defined the balance of the session. Breaking higher in time could have formed a compelling hold-long setup, which was attempted, in time, but not maintained through the close. The pattern remains vulnerable to resolve in either direction.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Still no finding any traction below, Sunday night extended the decline to fill the gap back down to 1.1335 and then to fresh lows at 1.1300. No abrupt recovery attempt would be credible at this stage, so no buy signal is being considered.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sunday night’s reaction back down to Thursday’s 1310.00 pullback low didn’t reject Friday’s attempt to trigger the 1317.00 buy signal, which would be credible for extending higher intraday if attempted Tuesday.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Already retracing Friday’s recovery attempt, Sunday night’s dip retested Thursday’s 15.65 prior lows, where closing back above 15.80 would still be credible for extending higher.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Having fulfilled the rally’s target to retest the 147.-00 prior highs, Sunday night’s weakness extended into a deeper pullback Monday that ranged between 146-10/146-16 to avoid reversing the trend down, while keeping alive potential for reinstating the rally’s upside momentum.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday was greeted by overnight weakness still testing the 52.00 sell signal, but not yet breaking lower, and keeping alive potential for recovering 53.30 to launch another rally effort.
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Avoiding a fresh low on Friday had recused Monday from any requirement to probe lower. It also enabled Sunday night’s open to gap up and touch “higher prior lows” at 2.75 that can begin forming a bottom. Closing any higher Tuesday could extend, but preferably after filling the gap back to Friday’s close under 2.60.
Mid-day Update… Still collecting its thoughts.
Late-Friday and Sunday surges yet to repeat.
The 2714.50 open was already backing off from attacking the 2721.50 overnight high. Post-open action channeled down to 2703.75, holding a test of this morning’s 2704.50 bias-down signal. No unfinished business below left outstanding.
The relevant 2708.00-2709.00 area that had held Friday’s late surge was probed as support repeatedly this morning. But every leg only overlapped the area, never breaking lower. Sellers haven’t gained traction, but buyers fail to exploit it. The noon hour’s bounce up to 2712.00 held. Its reaction is retesting the 2708.00-2709.00 area’s lower-end.
This a no-bias environment. Neither of this afternoon’s 2702.75-2713.75 bias signals was touched. If touched, either bias signal’s test should define that end of the range. Until the bias environment begins lapsing. Then, nothing would prevent a trending attempt from extending in that direction.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Feb 12, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s Jobs Openings report isn’t very high-profile, but it can be very influential if it either diverges from the interpretations of Friday’s Employment report, or if it reinforces an outlying interpretation. Neither of the pre-open report is either high-profile or influential.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
6:00 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
*JOLTS
10:00 AM ET