Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2714.75 | 2713.75 |
| …would target | 2720.75 | 2719.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2703.75 | 2702.75 |
| …would target | 2696.50 | 2695.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Post-open hovering.
Overnight rally not attracting reinforcements.
Two overnight probes above this morning’s 2719.00 bias-up target had reacted down to attack and then test the 2711.00 bias-up signal. The grace period was invoked to give it one more chance at triggering, but fresh lows down to 2706.00 failed to trigger it.
Late no-bias has put into play an offsetting test of the 2704.50 bias-down signal.
Fresh lows through 10:15-10:30 reinforce the late signal, although the dip hasn’t yet extended lower since then. Back above 2712.00 would start to signal that reinforcements are being overwhelmed by a detour to fresh post-higher, perhaps up to 2719.00.
Meanwhile, 2708.00-2709.00 is trying to hold as support, or as a magnetic attraction. In either case, breaking lower to 2704.50 is still challenging 2708.00-2709.00.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Taking another shot.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Thursday night had gradually, relentlessly, retraced almost all of the intraday recovery from its 2685.50 morning lows up to 2705.50. Friday’s opening blip-up was reversed back down immediately to probe fresh lows down to 2681.00. That was the decline’s next lower target, and it was the third post-open probe of fresh lows. Like the two prior, it reacted up sharply, too. Perhaps because it was met as the bias environment began lapsing, its reaction was more productive and durable. At the afternoon bias environment’s entry I noted that the last dip had trapped sellers. Although sellers were not marginalized, back above 2695.00 got a benefit of the doubt for extending higher, and the balance of the session rallied back up to 2702.00 before the final hour. Narrow ranging broke sharply higher during Friday’s last 5 minutes up to 2708.00-2709.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Friday’s last-minute 10-point surge hardly seemed organic, but it hasn’t been rejected. Sunday night’s open tried extending it by blipping-up to 2712.50. Its reaction settled down to 2700.50 and finally resolved up at Europe’s opens. Another surge up to 2721.50 is now reacting back down to 2712.00.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Friday’s close AT 2708.00-2709.00 resistance doesn’t itself equate to recovering it. Even if the overnight extension had not stopped short of “higher prior lows” at 2722.00 it wouldn’t qualify as testing it. The recovery attempt won’t be entirely reliable for extending higher, but it would be credible so long as this morning’s bias-up is triggered, and no timing window is exited back under a relevant level. Currently, the overnight high’s reaction down is testing Thursday’s 2712.00 opening print as support, which should hold if the rally’s momentum remains intact, targeting a probe above last week’s 2737.50 highs. Back under Thursday’s 2705.50 open-close overlap would help to indicate the rally had failed..
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2713.50 would be likely to trigger the 2711.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2708.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2712.25 | 2711.00 |
| …would target | 2720.25 | 2719.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2705.75 | 2704.50 |
| …would target | 2698.50 | 2697.25 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Just recovering 1.1400 would start to signal momentum reversing up, but Friday probed Thursday’s low down to 1.1355, presumably intent upon filling the gap back to the 1.1350 3-week old low close — which would not merit adjusting the buy signal.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up Friday to the 1317.00 buy signal hovered there throughout the day, still overlapping the signal without clearly triggering or rejecting it.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up above the 15.80 buy signal Friday reacted back down to nearly fill the gap back to Thursday’s close, and the afternoon evolved between 15.75-15.80.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Already trending higher overnight gapped up Friday and extended higher through the morning to essentially fulfill the 147-00 objective. Upside momentum remains intact so long as pullbacks now hold 146-14 as support.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The 52.40 sell signal that had been probed momentarily Thursday continued holding Friday, as did the 52.00 sell signal whose break would not require extending through the close to be relevant.
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s fresh lows didn’t extend lower Friday, and without fresh lows into the weekend there is potential for attracting buyers going into the new week.