Posts by Rod David
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2265.25 | 2260.25 |
| …would target | 2272.00 | 2267.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2256.00 | 2251.25 |
| …would target | 2251.00 | 2246.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Only one piece of “unfinished business below” is outstanding at Wednesday’s 1243.00 low. Thursday’s oversold RSIs at 1255.00 is retested. In fact, that’s where Friday closed. And there has yet to be any consequence to Thursday’s failed rally originating after buyers had failed to gain traction Wednesday afternoon.
The bullish WedEX was influential in two ways Friday, if it was influential at all. Neither way was overt. Its first influence is inferred from the morning-long relentless decline ending suddenly almost exactly when the afternoon bias environment began. Secondly, the close ended by bouncing to a fresh afternoon high. This suggests a specific behavior on Monday morning.
Friday afternoon’s bullish WedEX influence might have been more obvious if not for the president’s simultaneous press conference. Previous similar coincidences have also inhibited trending. But that doesn’t change the setup’s likely behavior Monday morning.
We’ll discuss these inputs and likely resolutions for setups Sunday night and Monday morning, at this weekend’s Saturday Review. Look for a reminder and login link overnight.
Meanwhile, the post-market Wrap recording is here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Bouncing off of Thursday’s test of 1.0365 to close above 1.0390 had indicated the decline wasn’t likely to extend Friday, which retraced it up to 1.0475. A bigger bounce isn’t required, but still possible without yet reversing the trend back up, Similarly, retesting the low wouldn’t prevent a bottom to begin forming.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up slightly and trying to probe higher Friday was likely to avoid a second consecutive lower close. Spiking up in reaction to an international incident with China assured it. Resistance at 1142.00 was probed by at least $1. Back under 1136.50 would likely resume the downleg next targeting 1118.00.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Firming Friday to probe above Thursday’s highs prevented a second consecutive lower close which allows a bottoming pattern to begin forming sooner, rather than later. Nevertheless, that means a couple of false breaks higher and a temporary probe of fresh lows before launching anything durable.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Delaying the pattern’s outstanding requirement for at least one eventual lower close suggests that just one new low close won’t suffice. Delays like filling the gap Thursday back up to Wednesday’s 149-25 close, and like bouncing Friday from attacking the 147-04 low down to 147-13 before bouncing 1 point.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
.Firming further Friday morning tested the 51.75 buy signal that makes last Sunday night’s 54.50 high likely to be retested. Resuming the rally to its 56.15 target is now less likely.
Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Although Thursday’s fresh low close had fulfilled the minimum objective, lower lows overnight and into Friday’s open tested November’s “lower prior highs” at 3.34,. Extending down Monday would next target 3.19.
Mid-day Update… Shift change.
Selling persists as long as possible.
There was a greater vulnerability to probing lower this morning, despite it being a no-bias environment. And perhaps because of being a no-bias environment, its 2255.00 bias-down signal defined the window’s lower-end. Mostly.
2255.00 didn’t break until after coming to within view of the bias environment lapsing at 11:30. Touching support at 2252.00 reacted up to attack 2259.00 at noon. Trending back down through the noon hour fell to 2249.50 just before triggering bias-down. Its 2249.00 bias-down target need not be met any closer than the 2-3 ticks already attacking it.
Now the bullish WedEX influence should begin to dominate price action. The nearest buy signal is 2252.75 which is being tested now. The balance of the afternoon could retest the low — despite only 3-minute RSI being oversold at the low so it doesn’t require a retest — so long as any fresh low or pullback resolves up to a fresh high.