Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Dec 19, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Only one econ report scheduled for Monday, and it does have a little track record for influencing price action. Its effect could be magnified for being the day’s only report. Yellen’s appearance will likely generate headlines when asked about three more rate hikes next year.
PMI Services Flash
9:45 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Janet Yellen Speaks
1:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2266.00 | 2261.00 |
| …would target | 2271.00 | 2266.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2259.25 | 2254.25 |
| …would target | 2254.00 | 2249.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Back down to unchanged.
Pre-open rally is retraced.
Already trying to rally overnight, this morning’s 2264.00 bias-up signal was touched before the open. But not after the open. It certainly didn’t trigger, but neither was its test rejected. That would have put into play an offsetting test of the 2255.00 bias-down signal.
Sliding just a little has tested 2257.25. Or is still testing 2257.25. It hasn’t actually been rejected, although back above 2260.25 and 2261.50 would be likely also to test 2264.00. Meanwhile, any fresh low would likely test 2255.00, and possibly also probe under it, despite this being a no-bias environment.
None of which has anything to do with the bullish WedEX influence likely to arrive after the noon hour. Nothing, other than this morning being an appropriate window to expend selling pressure that clears the way for upside into and out of the weekend.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The overnight bounce extended just enough to actually touch 2264.00. That’s this morning’s bias-up signal, which is resistance. Touching it post-open without also exceeding it through 10:15 would put into play an offsetting test of the 2255.00 bias-down signal. Not touching it at all by 10:15 could still dip to 2255.00, if not already triggering it, anyway.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Unenthusiastic.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Thursday was greeted by the prior afternoon’s slide from 2273.00 to 2243.00. Prior lows had held through the close, and attractions above were outstanding. A credible recovery would have rallied almost immediately, but Thursday morning’s rally to 2267.75 — though sizable — began too late. It was retraced to within a couple of points of its 2251.00-2252.00 open, with the close bouncing back up to 2260.00. Oversold RSIs were left outstanding at the 2252.75 low.
Overnight action’s new info…
Another choppy night of sideways action almost greeted this morning’s open. But a rally is already being attempted from the 2256.50 overnight low, and it is now in positive territory attacking 2264.00.
If, then…
Quadruple witch expiration has some unique nuances, but today is mostly influenced by Friday Factors. Like the morning’s bias tending to persist through the noon hour. Maintaining a gap up would be bullish. But oversold RSIs below still require a retest. And the bullish WedEX influence doesn’t begin until coming out of the noon hour.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2265.50 would be likely to trigger the 2264.00 bias-up signal at 10:!5. Exiting the open under 2261.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.