Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2276.00 | 2270.75 |
| …would target | 2281.50 | 2276.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2269.00 | 2264.00 |
| …would target | 2263.25 | 2258.00 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTING BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Closing within proximity of Tuesday afternoon’s 2273.00 high suggests that it will be retested,regardless of whether it was accompanied only by 1-minute RSI being overbought. Trending ahead of an FOMC statement would be unusual. But, then, so would seven days of rallying relentlessly ahead of the event.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Holding up.
Sideways into the close?
The afternoon’s 2266.50 bias-down signal was being tested when the bias environment began lapsing an hour ago. It no longer needed to define the window’s lower-end. Yet, despite not bouncing out of its test, 2266.50 has continued holding as support.
And now the 3:10-3:20 proxy window has lapsed without breaking lower, or bouncing. The market seems comfortable where it is, hovering under the 2270.00 upside potential, probed only once as the bias environment began.
A deeper pullback remains possible, with plenty of room below before failing to produce a new high close. That would neutralize the only remaining “unfinished business above,” except for overbought RSIs at the high. The 3-minute RSI wasn’t actually overbought when its high bar finished forming, so even that doesn’t require a retest.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s corrective bounce extended a little higher Tuesday, still having room up to 1.0685 while maintaining a near-term attraction back down to the gap at Friday’s close, as well as a likelihood for probing new lows.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
An overnight dip that recovered into Tuesday’s open was too shallow anyway to qualify as the selling effort that a bottoming pattern would need to finish forming. A steeper and deeper post-open dive tested the likely 1157.50 objective and tried holding it. Closing positive would be bullish, as would closing above 1166.00.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Filling the gap back up to its recent high close Monday was likely to produce a reaction down Tuesday, but its objective in the 17.00-17.10 area was exceeded to also retest 16.90. That’s deeper than would have been optimal, creating more room to recover before even launching a new upleg, which would be signaled by closing back above 17.05.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up Tuesday held resistance at 149-22 before retracing into the afternoon’s 30-year auction. The gap back to Monday’s 148-11 close was only attacked, stopping optimistically short of filling, while at least a third lower close in the decline is still required.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Sideways ranging continued to depend on the rally’s 52.75 upside target to serve as a pullback limit while maintaining upside potential for extending to 56.15..
Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s inside day didn’t reject Monday’s break lower, although a second consecutive lower close would be decisively bearish to require at least an eventual third lower close. None of which precludes there still being a lower close — at least probing lower intraday.
Mid-day Update… And the guest house’s kitchen sink.
And higher.
The open’s surge up to 2267.75 had formed a symmetrical triangle, a pattern that tends often to break falsely in one direction before reversing more substantially in the opposite direction. Its minimum target at 2260.50 was tested down to 2259.50, and then price started reversing back up. A buy signal that triggered above 2264.00 has only now violated a pullback limit after touching 2273.00.
Overbought RSIs at the high require its retest. But nothing higher is required. Ever. The triangle’s reversal has been more substantial than its false break. Retesting Sunday night’s high was likely to visit 2270.00. And this afternoon’s 2272.00 bias-up target was met, while testing it too late to renew the bias-up signal.
A reaction down to 2269.00. could extend to 2266.50 and not yet begin to damage the chart’s uptrend.Greeting tomorrow’s FOMC news at this point in the pattern would be strength. Having probed fresh highs ahead of the news, today’s close must be back under 2266.00 to at least suggest the upside momentum is lapsing.