Posts by Rod David
Globex open just popped 10 points.
Friday’s rally into the final hour had fulfilled its highest calculable objective at 2254.25. Reacting down touched 2151.75, and any deeper would have reversed momentum down, albeit too late to damage the chart. Anyway, its touch bounced back up to 2254.25 and firmed another point into the futures close.
Now Sunday night’s open has surged 10 points to attack 2265.00. The catalyst is an oil output deal that has pushed Crude Oil $1.25 above its 52.75 target, with potential up to 56.15. This weekend’s Saturday Review noted that the next higher objective has room up to 2270.00, but also that a higher close is not assured, while a multi-session pullback is getting likelier.
MONITOR GLOBEX IN THE CHARTROOM HERE
watch the Saturday Review recording here
Saturday Review’s recording (for 12/10/16) … Entrenched.
This weekend’s Saturday Review described the setups that got the market to its current lofty position, dating back to last month’s election.
One important and obvious question we addressed is “what makes the rally extend any higher?” All upside requirements have been fulfilled up to 2247.25 and 2252.50, including newer requirements that are being satisfied almost as quickly as they’re created. But the trend still finds ways to entrench itself — like Friday’s new trend extreme close. That only helps to ensure that a pullback is recovered, perhaps to probe fresh highs within the room for noise.
But other than room up to 2256.50 or 2270.00, no higher objective is currently in-play. A pullback would allow new targets to be calculated. And a pullback has room down to the rally’s prior objective of 2215.00 or “lower prior highs” around 2205.00 without reversing the rally’s trend.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
AMD, IBB, BIIB, GDX, GDXJ, AAPL, GS, BAC, NFLX, AMZN, PSDV, GWPH, CMG, FB
Saturday Review Link (RESENDING)
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
A new trend extreme close on Friday, and you know what that means… 1. At least one higher close is expected, eventually if not already on Monday. 2. So, not closing higher Monday would tell us the reaction down is only a temporary correction.
Closing higher Monday would render this contextual information useless. But immediately beginning a pullback — which could last several days — would give us confidence in expecting it to be temporary, and in looking for its complete recovery.
There are other interesting factors to last week’s rally. We’ll discuss them during this weekend’s Saturday Review. I’ll send out a reminder overnight. Meanwhile…
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2267.00 | 2261.25 |
| …would target | 2272.25 | 2266.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2259.00 | 2253.25 |
| …would target | 2252.50 | 2246.75 |
| Signal status: INVALIDATED NO-BIAS, BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL TESTED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.