Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s break under 1.0685 extended down deeper Friday to test month-old prior lows at 1.0535. Already having probed under it Sunday previously suggests that the likely retest will not form a quick bottom and recovery..
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s dip back under the 1178.50 pullback limit extended much deeper, retesting not only the decline’s 1166.00 target but also attacking prior lows under 1160.00. This action contradicts the bottoming effort, which still must be aggressive in launching a rally leg.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Room for noise down to 17.00 was probed Friday down to 17.90, almost as deep as possible without yet reversing the trend down.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s overdue break was confirmed Friday by gapping down and trending lower, producing a second consecutive lower close that attacked prior lows. An eventual third lower close is now required, targeting 147-21.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up Friday was an appropriate start to an upleg targeting fresh highs at 52.75, which would be confirmed by a second consecutive higher close Monday, and could extend higher anyway so long as pullbacks hold 50.50.
Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Fresh highs tested 3.75 Friday which would trigger an extended upleg if recovered through the close. Otherwise, closing back under 3.57 would reverse the trend down for at least a correctiion.
Mid-day Update… Back soon.
REMINDER: I am away from the screens during today’s noon hour and into the afternoon bias environment, then back through the close..
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Dec 12, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Absolutely no econ report is scheduled Monday, not even low-profile, unreliably influential. This can create a vacuum that elevates the impact of any other economic clues, enabling them to trigger a temporary reaction.
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
3-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
10-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Treasury Budget
2:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2254.50 | 2248.75 |
| …would target | 2265.25 | 2256.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2247.50 | 2241.75 |
| …would target | 2241.00 | 2235.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Probing higher regardless.
PROGRAMMING NOTE: I am away from the screens during today’s noon hour and into the afternoon bias environment, then back through the close.
The open was greeted by a shallow dip back down to the 2242.50 bias-up signal. Post-open action then steadily recovered up to the 2247.25 bias-up target, new highs.
Reacting down wasn’t recovered in time to renew the bias-up signal. This is a bias-up environment, whose target has been met. Renewing the bias-up signal would have next targeted 2252.50. Extending higher isn’t precluded, it’s just not required.
Fresh highs have touched 2249.00. Not extending higher could range sideways through the close. Or, not extending higher could reverse back under 2242.50 when the bias environment begins lapsing at 11:30 and slide into the weekend.
Potential for reversing down remains alive today for a new reason: Holding a test of the bias-up target. So, before having exceeded the bias-up signal at 10:15 to trigger it, its buying pressure was satisfied. This reflects impatient buying, which is not in itself bearish — unless even less patient buyers arrive to absorb the impatient buyers quickly becoming impatient profit-takers.