Posts by Rod David
Mid-day Update… Morning rally ended.
UPDATE: I’m unavailable during today’s last timing window (which begins at 2:30 ET). There is no post-market Wrap or Saturday Review. It seems my connectivity has already become limited, and only the Daily Spot will be updated.
The 2191.75 sell signal held its test this morning. Probing it down to 2190.50 bounced back above 2194.00 to resume the morning rally. Room up to the 2197.00 bias-up signal was fully utilized. And despite the bias environment already lapsing when tested, its resistance held.
The morning rally, and the morning, both have ended. And another sell signal triggered under 2192.75.
Now this morning’s 2187.50 bias-down signal no longer need hold as support. But it’s trying. This afternoon’s 2189.00 bias-down signal triggered, putting into play its 2182.75 bias-down target. But touching 2187.50 has bounced to test 2189.00 as resistance.
The drop is likely to resume if the reversal isn’t recovered as the bias environment begins lapsing at 2:30 (when I will no longer be in front of the screens). And the bias-down target is just interim support on the way down to 2181.00.
Meanwhile, Gold (and Silver) and the Euro are threatening to bottom, if their earlier recoveries from this morning aren’t derailed. Could be very interesting into the close… Have fun!
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Dec 5, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The econ calendar is relatively busy for a Monday. And that’s not even including the three Fed speakers staggered through the day..
Gallup US Consumer Spending Measure
8:30 AM ET
*William Dudley Speaks
8:30 AM ET
*Charles Evans Speaks
9:25 AM ET
PMI Services Index
9:45 AM ET
ISM Non-Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
Labor Market Conditions Index
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
TD Ameritrade IMX
12:30 PM ET
*James Bullard Speaks
2:05 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2198.50 | 2197.75 |
| …would target | 2204.25 | 2203.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2189.75 | 2189.00 |
| …would target | 2183.50 | 2182.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Buyers lacking sponsorship.
REMINDER: I’m unavailable during today’s last timing window (which begins at 2:30 ET). There is no post-market Wrap or Saturday Review.
The open was greeted nearly unchanged from yesterday’s 2192.00 futures close. Post-open action was initially hesitant to trend either way, not until being halfway through — exactly halfway through — the opening 15 minutes of volatility. The timing could have been more abrupt to qualify as the characteristic a morning rally required. It certainly couldn’t have been less abrupt.
So, fresh highs got up to 2195.50 stopping short of the 2197.00 bias-up signal. This is a no-bias environment. Exceeding 2197.00 through 10:30 could still invalidate that it wasn’t recovered in time to trigger. Meanwhile, it should now define the morning’s upper-end if tested.
Neither recovery path was followed at the open, so a morning rally is likely to be only temporary. In fact, a reaction down is now testing 2191.75, whose break would start to signal that the post-open hesitation is exerting its influence. The 2187.50 bias-down signal should define the morning’s lower-end, unless broken through 10:30. Retesting the overnight lows would likely extend deeper to also test 2181.00.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
REMINDER: I’m unavailable during today’s last timing window (which begins at 2:30 ET). There is no post-market Wrap or Saturday Review.
The bounce off of overnight lows made it back up to 2191.00 ahead of this morning’s Employment Situation report. The knee-jerk reaction was relatively muted, spiking down to 2187.00 and back up to a fresh high at 2191.50. Gapping up enough to reverse the trend up isn’t likely. Isolating a retest of the overnight low is possible, but difficult. A morning rally should begin abruptly at the open, so any weaker strength — or weakness, itself — would be credible for extending down.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.