Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2209.25 | 2207.75 |
| …would target | 2214.50 | 2213.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2201.00 | 2199.75 |
| …would target | 2194.25 | 2192.75 |
| Signal status:LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Tuesday’s bounce came to within 1 point of “unfinished business above” at 2210.50 as the bias environment began lapsing. That didn’t matter, as it was left outstanding. And it didn’t prevent against reversing down sharply.
Dropping back down to 2201.25 reached the morning’s “lower prior highs” during the position-squaring window. That stopped optimistically short of being unchanged just several ticks lower.
Firming into the close held 2203.75, which was the morning’s bias-up signal. This essentially rejects the interim probe above it. That’s not just 6 points of probing, but several hours, all failing to gain traction for the effort.
Once again, only gapping up above the prior afternoon’s high — which, in this case, is 2208.50 — would prevent resuming the decline Wednesday with a vengeance. Gapping up above 2208.50 and also maintaining the gap up, likely would at least attack 2220.00 intraday.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Firming Tuesday to 1.0650 stopped short of 1.0685 whose recovery would prevent retesting last week’s low to form a durable bottom.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Still fluctuating around 1191.50 resistance (basis Feb, 1188.00 basis Dec) instead of rallying above it doesn’t qualify as completing the current bottoming attempt, or as rejecting its vulnerability to probing a fresh low at 1170.00.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Rallying Tuesday probed above the 16.70 buy signal (basis Mar, 16.62 basis Dec) to 16.78, but still overlapped it to avoid completing the bottom.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Firming Tuesday further delayed resuming the continuation pattern’s break lower, which questions whether another bottoming pattern is forming. But the trend remains down unless closing above 154-19.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday night’s drop extended lower Tuesday morning to probe under Sunday night’s lows down to 44.80-44.85. Bouncing wasn’t recovered sufficiently to signal the pullback had ended, but closing above 47.60 would put into play fresh highs at 50.50.
Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Initiallly probing slightly higher Monday night, Tuesday only hovered and barely held 3.30 as support to avoid launching a pullback targeting at least two lower gaps outstanding.
Mid-day Update… A bigger bounce.
Morning’s bounce has extended.
This morning’s 2203.75 bias-up signal defined the bias environment’s upper-end, but only for as long as was necessary. A brief dip within 10-15 minutes of the bias environment lapsing was resolved by resuming the rally up to 2208.00.
Now the afternoon’s 2208.50 bias-up signal is being touched. It should define the afternoon bias environment’s upper-end — at least until coming within 10-15 minutes of the bias environment lapsing at 2:30.
Not yet resuming the decline for this long suggests that a bigger detour is underway. “Unfinished business above” at 2210.50, 2211.50 and potentially also 2220.00 are all possible on this rally leg. Albeit a temporary rally leg, since yesterday’s action all but ensures probing eventually under 2192.00.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Nov 30, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday’s calendar isn’t just busy, it’s very high-profile and influential. Two Fed speakers are the least of it. Reaction to the pre-open ADP helps to crystallize the reaction to Friday’s payrolls. And its reaction can be duplicated by the morning’s other reports. Staggering the release of the post-open Chicago PMI often signals a reliable expectation for its public release. And the afternoon’s Beige Book keeps alive volatility, while also speaking directly to how supportive conditions are for Fed action..
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
Robert Kaplan Speaks
8:00 AM ET
*ADP Employment Report
8:15 AM ET
Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 AM ET
*Jerome Powell Speaks
9:15 AM ET
*Chicago PMI
9:45 AM ET
Pending Home Sales Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
*Loretta Mester Speaks
12:35 PM ET
*Beige Book
2:00 PM ET
Farm Prices
3:00 PM ET