Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2210.00 | 2208.50 |
| …would target | 2214.75 | 2213.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2203.25 | 2202.00 |
| …would target | 2197.25 | 2195.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Sellers starting slowly.
Fresh lows hold support, already neutralize upside attraction.
Greeting the open essentially unchanged at 2200.00-2201.00 didn’t sit there still. A bounce quickly touched an inflection point at 2202.50. Any higher would have triggered a buy signal, but price quickly inflected down to fresh lows. Fresh lows barely touched the 2196.50 bias-down signal.
Price has since stair-stepped higher into a bigger bounce attacking the overnight highs. Holding a test of the bias-down signal through 10:15 put into play an offsetting test of the 2203.75 bias-up signal. It is now being probed by fresh post-open highs up to 2205.00. There’s another couple of ticks above it of room for noise.
Back under 2201.50 would signal that the bounce was only a temporary detour on the way to lower lows. Touching 2205.50 would raise the sell signal to 2203.00. Exiting the no-bias environment above its 2203.75 bias-up signal isn’t likely, and not likely to extend without at least retesting 2203.75 or 2000.00.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The overnight bounce up to 2206.00 has been retraced entirely to greet the open unchanged at 2200.00-2201.00. That’s not rejecting yesterday afternoon’s downleg, or its close under prior intraday lows. Which leaves only the 2203.75 bias-up signal as a defense against extending down to probe under 2192.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Big, swinging range.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Monday morning’s high touched the 2209.50 target of Friday’s bias signal. Monday afternoon’s high attacked it. But positive territory was never recovered. And the afternoon’s no-bias environment lapsed without trying another recovery, so a decline filled the void. And it extended until probing he 2199.50 overnight low by 5 ticks as the position-squaring window lapsed. Monday’s last several minutes bounced to 2201.00. More “unfinished business above” was created, and left outstanding. The gap back up to Friday’s 2210.50 cash session close, and Monday morning’s 2211.50 bias-up signal, are both likely to be tested before a durable downleg can begin. .
Overnight action’s new info…
Monday’s last-minute bounce was corrected by more than 3 points to test 2199.00. Probing above 2202.00 before Europe’s opens improved up to 2206.00. Another reaction down of more than 3 points has since ranged around this morning’s 2203.75 bias-up signal.
If, then…
Yesterday’s close at fresh intraday lows put into play a retest of 2192.00 prior lows, probably down to 2187.50. That downleg would be delayed by gapping up today above yesterday afternoon’s 2207.00 high. The delay setup would also form a “session-long rally,” likely to test the newly-created “unfinished business above” at 2210.50 and 2211.50 — which is in addition to the 2220.00 objective put into play by closing last week above 2192.00. So, today’s open is currently indicated at the midpoint of a 30-35 point range. Either end is equally likely to be tested, before reversing to the opposite end. And the resolution to today’s open could tell us which end will be tested first.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2207.00 would be likely to trigger the 2203.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2201.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2205.75 | 2203.75 |
| …would target | 2211.75 | 2209.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2198.50 | 2196.50 |
| …would target | 2192.75 | 2190.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.