Posts by Rod David
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Monday morning’s high touched the 2209.50 target of Friday’s bias signal. Monday afternoon’s high attacked it. But positive territory was never recovered. And the afternoon’s no-bias environment lapsed without trying another recovery, so a decline filled the void. And it extended until probing he 2199.50 overnight low by 5 ticks as the position-squaring window lapsed. Monday’s last several minutes bounced to 2201.00.
More “unfinished business above” was created, and left outstanding. The gap back up to Friday’s 2210.50 cash session close, and Monday morning’s 2211.50 bias-up signal, are both likely to be tested before a durable downleg can begin. This is in addition to the 2220.00 objective put into play by closing last week above 2192.00.
But, first, 2192.00 is unlikely to hold again if retested. Just attacking it would all but ensure probing it down to 2187.50. Avoiding its test would all but require gapping up Tuesday above Monday afternoon’s 2207.00 high — which would also form a “session-long rally setup”.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Down, but not out.
Dipping into the last window.
This afternoon’s no-bias environment ranged narrowly down to 2205.00, until it began lapsing at 2:30. Then fresh lows gradually ticked down to fresh afternoon lows. An hour later and 5 points lower, now 2200.00 is being attacked.
RSIs are oversold for the first time today. The position-squaring window will open in several minutes. This dip should already be reacting up sharply by then — essentially behaving as if a stretched rubber band is snapping back up.
Otherwise, not reacting up soon, and obviously, would more likely probe under the overnight lows, with potential down to 2187.50.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Bouncing Sunday night held a brief test of the 1.0685 buy signal that would trigger if recovered through the close. Its reaction down dipped back under Friday’s lows to Wednesday’s afternoon highs, and only the briefest fresh low would be tolerated if the pattern is bottoming.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sunday night’s bounce was retraced back down to spend Monday morning overlapping 1188.00 whose recovery would signal a bottom is forming.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Sharply higher highs Sunday night up to 16.85 were retraced by Monday morning at least back under 16.62, whose recovery would otherwise signal that a bottom is forming, if not already formed.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Bouncing again Sunday night continued to delay a new downleg from the recent continuation pattern. But fresh lows remain likely so long as 154-19 is not recovered.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s drop was refueled by weekend headlines to gap down Sunday night to test 45.15. But that never extended before recovering through Monday’s open as the news turned more favorable. Back above 48.00 would help to confirm that at least a fresh high — potentially up to 50.50 — remains likely before a durable downleg would be credible.
Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Monday to test 3.28 helps to confirm the next higher target is in-play at 3.35-3.40. Back under 3.19 — especially by gapping down Tuesday — would suggest that gaps below 3.01 and 2.95 will be filled first.
Mid-day Update… Time to volley?
Still no follow-through to two attempted sell-offs.
The overnight drop to 2199.50 was recovered 10 points up to 2209.50 through the open. It was retraced to within 3 ticks after reacting down to 2201.25.
This afternoon’s 2208.00 bias-up signal held its test to avoid triggering. But this morning’s 2211.50 objective has become “unfinished business above.” Probing above 2208.00 at the bias environment exit would be likely to extend up to 2211.50.
Meanwhile, a deeper pullback has room to test 2202.00. Probing lower when the bias environment lapses would likely trend down through tomorrow’s open.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Nov 29, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s reaction to the Dallas Fed’s upbeat surprise gives every one of Tuesday’s reports added potential to trigger a reaction. Consumer Confidence is the likeliest, although strong housing sector data would also impact price action.
Stanley Fischer Speaks
7:45 AM ET
GDP
8:30 AM ET
Corporate Profits
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET
*William Dudley Speaks
9:15 AM ET
*Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET