Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2210.00 | 2208.00 |
| …would target | 2215.50 | 2213.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2203.50 | 2201.50 |
| …would target | 2197.00 | 2195.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Cornered.
Post-open action is stuck.
The overnight plunge to 2199.50 had recovered pre-open to test 2207.00. The open attacked overnight highs up to 2208.00. Gapping down did not extend lower, so sellers are not strong-handed.
Ultimately, the 2205.50 bias-down signal held its test through the 10:30 grace period, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2211.50. That was produced by a favorable knee-jerk reaction to an inflationary econ report. But 2205.50 was quickly retraced.
And then some.
Now a fre3sh post-o0pen low has touched 2203.00, trying to reverse momentum down. Its objective would be to retest the 2199.50 overnight low. Exiting the bias environment above its 2198.00 bias-down target would make the 2211.50 objective become “unfinished business above.”
Invalidating the late no-bias is unlikely at this late stage. But it’s possible, and would have potential down to 2187.50.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The overnight plunge to 2199.50 has extended its recovery up to 2207.50, where Friday morning’s buy signal had triggered. Gapping down back under Tuesday and Wednesday’s “lower prior highs” is not a threat, so a near-term trend reversal is less likely. That doesn’t ensure resuming the rally immediately, but any retest of overnight lows must be absorbed and rejected quickly to avoid gaining downside traction.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Starting this week on a different note.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Friday’s opening 15 minutes of volatility being glued to 2205.50 suggested almost instantly that the holiday-shortened session would likely not be volatile. Trending would be difficult, although the 2204.25 bias-up signal did trigger. But its 2209.50 bias-up target wasn’t even attacked until 3 hours of a 6-tick range around 2207.50. A last-minute break higher met 2209.50 on the way to attacking 2212.00 after the close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Weekend headlines had backed away from a unified OPEC. Sunday night’s open gapped down to the 2208.00 origin of Friday’s last-minute 3-point surge. It extended down to test Friday morning’s 2204.75 post-open lows, and bounced back up to 2208.00. Headlines of Italy’s bank problems triggered a plunge to 2199.50.testing Tuesday and Wednesday’s “lower prior highs.” Its reaction up tested 2206.00.
If, then…
Only the 2220.00 objective created above 2192.00 was “unfinished business above” as of Friday’s close. Gapping down today would create new unfinished business above at the gap back up to Friday’s 2210.50 cash session close. It’s 2211.50 close would likely be filled, too, having developed on a Friday. The overnight drop is currently reacting up back into Friday’s range, but not maintaining its recovery — gapping down back under Tuesday and Wednesday’s 2202.25 prior highs — would isolate Friday’s new highs and launch a multi-session reversal down.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2101.50 would be likely to trigger the 2205.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open. Exiting the open above 2207.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
Overnight Globex open is coming.
Is the OPEC deal on, or off? Several headlines this weekend have returned it to its recent up-in-the-air status. Stocks should be affected Sunday night either way. The French primary results may have an effect when Europe opens overnight. The Globex session opens at 6:00pm ET.
Monitor Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.