Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2213.50 | 2211.50 |
| …would target | 2220.00 | 2218.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2207.50 | 2205.50 |
| …would target | 2200.00 | 2198.00 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
A slightly lower low Wednesday night at 1.0525 was recovered to only trade Friday in positive territory, but that doesn’t qualify as a bottom without also closing above 1.0685.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh lows testing the 1170.00 area were recovered into Friday’s open to test the 1188.00 bounce limit. It held, but its reaction down also held 1178.00 whose break would target a fresh low at 1166.00 and potentially end the decline.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The holiday’s weakness only attacked prior lows down to 16.15 without creating any requirement for a retest or to probe lower. But an attack on the low down to 16.25-16.30 is likely before recovering above 16.65 to signal a rally underway.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Only ranging narrowly Friday neither reversed the decline’s momentum nor extended it. But not reversing it by now has made the decline likely to extend anyway, next targeting 149-28 so long as 154-19 isn’t recovered.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
.Friday’s drop tested the recovery’s initial 46.60 target down to 45.88. The dip should be rejected almost immediately to maintain it being only a temporary correction on the way up to 50.50.
Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Closing Friday above 3.08 puts into play 3.40. That doesn’t prevent an interim dip triggered which would be triggered under 2.97 and targeting at least 2.69.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
REMINDER: There is no Saturday Review this weekend due to the holiday. Have a great weekend, chaRTroom will re-open with Globex on Sunday night.
Friday’s opening 15 minutes of volatility were glued to 2205.50. This suggested almost instantly that the holiday-shortened session would likely not be volatile. That made trending very far very difficult.
But the 2204.25 bias-up signal did trigger, putting into play its 2209.50 bias-up target. Almost three hours of a 6-tick range around 2207.50 finally broke higher within minutes of the close. The 2209.50 target was met, on the way to test 2211.00 after the close.
Now the 2220.00 objective created above 2192.00 is the only “unfinished business above.” Gapping down Monday would make Friday’s close become unfinished business, too. And it could remain unfinished throughout a detour dip, which is likely as the target is approached.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Nov 28, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Nothing among Monday’s econ reports that is either high-profile or influential to price action. Except that this being the beginning of the week, any surprises or extreme readings could generate a reaction.
Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
10:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Post-open Review… The tryptophan lingers.
Very narrow opening range.
The fluctuated narrowly around 2205.50 through 9:45 to avoid any preliminary signal. The 2204.25 bias-up signal was no more or less likely to trigger at 10:15.
It triggered.
Price meanwhile improved up to 2207.75, which neutralizes all “new Globex trend extremes.” Only the 2220.00 target remains outstanding, which triggered Monday above 2192.00.
Unfortunately, there’s no assurance of extending this morning, or of drifting back down. The open lacked volatility, not even attempting to trend by 9:45, let alone succeeding or being rejected.
The upside still gets a benefit of the doubt since bias-up triggered. Its 2209.50 bias-up target need not be met today. Back under 2205.00 would start becoming attracted back down to 2192.00.