Posts by Rod David
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The overnight dip to 2202.50 has held, and the 2207.25 overnight high has been attacked to within 1 point. Some indication of upside traction through the open could drift higher into the early close. Similarly, a failed attempt to gain upside traction could drift lower. Not attempting to gain traction would suggest the balance of the session will either fluctuate narrowly, or unpredictably.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Holiday high.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Wednesday morning’s retest of 2192.00 support had held, as its test had held Tuesday morning. It hasn’t actually been probed since being exceeded Monday afternoon, which put into play 2220.00. But even the holiday’s seasonal bullishness couldn’t offset the evaporating volume, limiting strength to only attack 2202.50. More “unfinished business above” was left outstanding at 2204.25 as price firmed into a positive close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Wednesday night’s initial dip back down to 2197.50 was recovered to attack 2202.50 into Europe’s opens. The resistance held until Thursday morning, which broke higher to new highs at 2207.00 before 1:00pm close. Thursday night’s action didn’t extend higher, but its reaction down has held 2202.50 as support.
If, then…
The 2220.00 target is essentially the only unfinished business above. It provides a safety line of sorts in case of another attempted downleg. Interestingly, so does Monday night’s 2203.00 “new Globex trend extreme.” It requires intraday retest, and only attacking it to within 3 ticks does not qualify. Today’s early close typically makes today the year’s least liquid sessions. So, getting a toehold above any unfinished business could marginalize sellers for the day, allowing the balance of the session to drift higher. By the same token, neutralizing any unfinished business without maintaining its recovery through a relevant window could drift back down relentlessly, to and (on the way) through 2192.00.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2205.50 would be likely to trigger the 2204.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2200 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. PROGRAMMING NOTE: THERE IS NO AFTERNOON BIAS DUE TO THE EARLY CLOSE.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Nov 25, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: No influential pre-open reports greet Friday’s abbreviated session. And the afternoon’s Rig Count might have been released already on Wednesday. Beware of illiquidity which makes trending difficult, especially beyond any prior extremes.
International Trade in Goods
8:30 AM ET
PMI Services Flash
9:45 AM ET
?Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2206.25 | 2204.25 |
| …would target | 2211.50 | 2209.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2200.75 | 2198.75 |
| …would target | 2193.50 | 2191.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
HAVE A GREAT THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY… The chaRTroom will be open with Globex through 1:00pm ET, which re-opens Thursday at 6:00pm.
Attacking the afternoon’s 2101.25 bias-up signal to within 1 tick had a chilling effect. Even the FOMC Minutes didn’t shake price action loose from a 2-3 point range since the noon hour’s exit.
Hovering at session highs could have just as easily drifted to the session’s lower-end. Sponsorship for a breakout is difficult to attract when everyone’s running out the door. But halfway through the position-squaring window, price did start firming. It barely pierced 2202.25 and closed positive 1 point vs. Tuesday’s cash session close.
An offsetting test of Wednesday morning’s 2204.25 bias-up signal had been put into play by holding a test of the bias-down signal. An intraday retest of Monday night’s 2203.00 “new Globex trend extreme” is still required, regardless of having pierced it by 2 ticks Tuesday’s night. The other “unfinished business above” is the 2220.00 objective put into play by closing above 2192.00.
By the way, 2192.00 has been tested thoroughly as support. If tested again — whether before or after testing 2220.00 above — it’s likely to be probed by a downleg instead of holding again.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.