Posts by Rod David
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The otherwise narrow overnight range’s lower-end had been probed by 2-1/2 points to test 2198.00. Bouncing 3 points has resolved down sharply to 2194.00, and lower. That’s essentially the origin of yesterday afternoon’s rally, and almost any lower would compel a bearish mentality through the morning. By the same token, absorbing the dip and not triggering the 2195.50 bias-down signal would be bullish into the holiday.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… An anxious calm.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s gap up to 2200.00 was 3 points under the overnight “new Globex trend extreme.” That spread widened despite triggering bias-up, as the balance of the morning slid back down to Monday afternoon’s 2192.00 lows. But the balance of the session trended back up to and through the opening range until the final minutes fulfilled the morning’s 2202.50 bias-up target.
Overnight action’s new info…
Choppy but narrow ranging eventually pierced a fresh high at 2203.50, then reacted down to 2197.75. The 5-point slide is now trying to bounce back into the range.
If, then…
Probing overnight above Monday night’s 2203.00 high doesn’t qualify as retesting it intraday, so its attraction remains outstanding. Also outstanding is the 2220.00 objective, which was put into play by closing above 2192.00 Monday. Meanwhile, Tuesday afternoon’s recovery gained traction, and the session confirmed Monday’s breakout. None of which prevents a reaction down Wednesday, despite the likely and least likely windows all having passed as Thanksgiving’s seasonal bullishness arrives. Wednesday’s econ calendar has plenty of catalysts, from the morning’s high-profile and/or reliably influential reports, through the afternoon’s FOMC Minutes.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2201.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2204.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2205.50 would be likely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2206.75 | 2204.25 |
| …would target | 2213.75 | 2211.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2197.50 | 2195.25 |
| …would target | 2192.25 | 2189.75 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
The afternoon’s recovery extended to fresh post-open highs that touched this morning’s 2202.50 bias-up target. Its upside attraction is now neutralized, as is the 2200.00 opening gap up above all prior highs. Monday night’s 2203.00 “new Globex trend extreme” is outstanding, regardless of having been attacked to within 2-3 ticks. Also outstanding is the 2220.00 objective, which was put into play by closing above 2192.00 Monday.
None of which prevents a reaction down Wednesday, despite the likely and least likely windows all having passed as Thanksgiving’s seasonal bullishness arrives. Especially not when Wednesday’s econ calendar is extremely busy, with high-profile and reliably influential reports, including the afternoon’s FOMC Minutes.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Drifting higher into the sunset.
Having held range’s lower-end, upper-end now attacked.
This morning’s drop back down to yesterday afternoon’s 2192.00 prior lows did hold their test, where at least 1-minute RSI diverged positively. The noon hour’s rally extended to test but not trigger this afternoon’s 2196.75 bias-up signal, which then defined the bias environment’s upper-end.
Now the bias environment has lapsed. The open’s 2198.00-2101.00 opening range is being probed. The 2200.00 opening print is being attacked. This isn’t yet within the 2203.00 overnight high’s orbit, but there’s no bearish reason to have retraced only this much of the reaction down.
The bias environment began lapsing above the noon hour’s high, and the final hour was entered above the bias environment’s high. That’s traction. Depending on the final hour’s pattern, there may still be a setup for a session-long decline. Meanwhile, fresh highs remain likely whether overnight or tomorrow.