Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s narrow range was followed by another on Tuesday, dipping only deeply enough to attack Friday’s low. At least a third eventual lower close is still required to fulfill Thursday’s confirmed breakout.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
An even bigger bounce Monday night probed above the 1213.00 bounce limit and still resolved down to retest 1206.00 as support. The 1196.50 target remains intact.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s intraday fluctuation around 16.62 all but rejected what was the biggest overnight bounce since first fulfilling the objective, making fresh lows likely.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Rallying Monday night barely attacked the 154-19 bounce limit and held the continuation pattern’s uptrending support as resistance. While that doesn’t invalidate the downside momentum, there’s no bearish reason such as refueling for further delaying a drop to fresh lows.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Overnight highs fulfilled the 48.75 target while attacking 49.25, reacting down almost immediately. A second consecutive higher close could have confirmed Monday’s breakout session and created a higher objective, but closing negative instead does not necessarily reverse momentum down.
Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Simply firming to close positive Tuesday still satisfies the eventual third higher close that became required by confirming Thursday’s breakout. The gaps outstanding below can no longer be tested from a position of strength, but could still hold if tested. This week’s EIA report is scheduled one day earlier on Wednesday due to the holiday.
Mid-day Update… Tough hurdle.
Noon hour’s bounce stops at resistance.
This morning’s 2202.50 bias-up target overnight is now “unfinished business above.” Meeting it overnight doesn’t qualify as fulfilling it, not before even triggering the 2197.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. And bias-up wasn’t rejected at 11:30, despite the morning bias environment returning to yesterday’s 2192.00 last relative low.
Add it to the 2203.00 overnight high’s “new Globex trend extreme” which requires intraday retest. Add them to the 2220.00 objective put into play by yesterday’s close above 2192.00. And don’t forget today’s 2200.00 opening print. It gapped up above all prior highs, all but requiring a retest after dipping back under prior highs.
So, the reaction down seems to have bottomed upon testing yesterday afternoon’s lows at 2192.00. Seems to have, except a bounce up to this afternoon’s 2196.75 bias-up signal didn’t trigger. Firming further this afternoon is still possible, and would likely reach overnight highs. Otherwise, fresh lows could test 2191.00, and its break would target 2182.00.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Nov 23, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Being the day before a holiday has caused reports to be lumped into Wednesday, making it a very busy session. More so, several of the day’s reports are high-profile and/or influential to price action. More more so, the innocently illiquid afternoon will be hit by one of the month’s more reliably influential reports, FOMC Minutes. Note that any clear price reaction to the pre-open Durable Goods report is likely to be duplicated by the morning’s other reports.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
FHFA House Price Index
9:00 AM ET
*PMI Manufacturing Index Flash
9:45 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
New Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
*EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
12:00 PM ET
7-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
*FOMC Minutes
2:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2199.50 | 2196.75 |
| …would target | 2205.00 | 2202.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2192.00 | 2189.50 |
| …would target | 2196.75 | 2194.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Hung up.
Gapping up and holding.
This morning’s 2197.00 bias-up signal held neatly as support when tested by the overnight pullback from 2203.00. Bouncing into and out of the open quickly extended up to 2201.00. Another reaction down to 2198.00 was recovered back to 2201.00.
It’s too late to reject 2197.00 and avoid triggering bias-up. It’s too late for a break under 2197.00 to invalidate the bias-up. The 2202.50 bias-up target is in-play. Its test is likely also to visit the 2203.00 high for being a “new Globex trend extreme,” potentially up to 2105.50.
None of which is preventing yet another reaction from retesting 2198.00. Sellers aren’t entirely marginalized, and a runaway rally isn’t likely. Under 2197.50 could extend down another 3 points, and still be likely to recover.