Posts by Rod David
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The reaction down from the 2203.00 overnight higgh has dipped a little deeper to test this morning’s 2197.00 bias-up signal as support. That’s still above yesterday’s range, diminishing the risk of isolating the probe above yesterday’s range to the overnight. That doesn’t ensure triggering the bias-up signal, whose alternative would put into play an offsetting test of the 1289.25 bias-down signal, at least. Meanwhile, Crude Oil has reacted down already from fulfilling its target overnight, diminishing its effect as a bearish catalyst. This morning’s bias signal could be predictive of the next two days.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Last likely window for down.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Pessimism was glaringly absent Monday. Gapping up to just under Friday’s 2187.50 high and then extending through it eventually touched 2196.50. An interim 6-1/2 point dip was recovered along the way. But there was otherwise no bearish WedEX influence. The indicator didn’t invert, which means that the distributive influence it had identified originally was already absorbed. The reward was to close above 2192.00, which was the room for noise above 2185.00-2186.00, and which signals that the rally is extending to 2220.00. “Unfinished business above” was left outstanding at 2199.50.
Overnight action’s new info…
Monday’s futures close had reacted back down to touch 2192.00, but only momentarily. The intraday rally soon resumed and extended up to 2203.00 well before midnight, fulfilling the intraday upside target that was left outstanding. Complexity to the rally has created a “new Globex trend extreme” which requires eventually retesting its high intraday. Meanwhile, consolidating narrowly for several hours wasn’t impressed by Europe’s opens, and price soon began dipping. Still a couple of points above yesterday’s late high, the pullback is now testing 2198.00.
If, then…
Absorbing the bearish WedEX and putting into play 2220.00 don’t protect against corrective dips. The seasonally bullish Thanksgiving holiday doesn’t protect against a pullback either, it only inhibits. And that’s not until this afternoon. Which makes this morning the last and likeliest opportunity for a natural correction. The opportunity is greater for having entrenched further upside with the new upside target, and the new Globex trend extreme’s required retest to help recover from its reaction down. It’s also interesting that the overnight high tested and held this morning’s bias-up target. But the overnight higher highs also help to expend selling pressure before it can start damaging the chart — so long as the open isn’t back within yesterday’s range, which would isolate the fresh highs to the overnight, and could point down sharply.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2194.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2197.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2199.50 would be likely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2199.50 | 2197.00 |
| …would target | 2205.00 | 2202.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2191.75 | 2189.25 |
| …would target | 2186.75 | 2184.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
The bearish WedEX didn’t invert, so the distributive influence that had triggered it last week was already absorbed. And not arbitrarily, Closing above the 2192.00 room for noise above 2185.00-2186.00 has signaled the rally is extending to 2220.00. “Unfinished business above” was left outstanding at 2199.50, and upside momentum won’t be threatened Tuesday without immediately breaking back under Friday’s 2187.50 prior high.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Big close.
Hovering above all prior highs.
This morning’s upside momentum was only barely violated by 2-3 ticks. This afternoon’s bias-up was not invalidated. Its 2199.50 bias-up target has become “unfinished business above.”
While the open was unlikely to sit still, whether that meant reversing down or extending higher, that’s no longer the case today. The balance of the session may continue hovering at or above the 2192.00 resistance.
2192.00 had been the room for noise above 2185.00-2186.00. It has been probed only once, with only a little complexity. Closing under 2192.00 would not be enough to indicate it held — the close must also finish under 2185.00-2186.00.
Otherwise, the rally will have entrenched itself. And pullback, or not, the next higher objective at 2220.00 would be in-play.