Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2672.25 | 2695.50 |
| …would target | 2704.75 | 2703.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2689.50 | 2688.00 |
| …would target | 2683.50 | 2682.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS SIGNALS | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Strrreeetch. Snap.
Post-open lows react up sharply. Then fail, more sharply.
A pre-open blip-down had pierced the 2708.00-2709.00 “lower prior highs” I described during the Market Tour. 
Its reaction up to 2715.50 revealed the inherent support there, as suspected there would be. But an intraday test would be optimal for the purpose of reversing the overnight trend back up.
So, post-open action slid to 2705.50.
That was more than 30 minutes following the open, before one bar finally didn’t overlap 2708.00-2709.00. It also probed a fresh low, making it a “detached bar” that reflects sentiment either becoming extreme, or making its extreme.
It was the latter, and price began firming. Then rallying. And pretty quickly, surging more than 10 points to touch this morning’s 2718.25 bias-down target as resistance. Perhaps a little too quickly. In fact, too quick of a reward, as China trade headlines triggered a sell signal. That has plunged to fresh lows at 2699.50.
Regardless of the decline’s degree, entering the noon hour back above 2708.00-2709.00 — preferably already exiting the bias environment higher — would suggest that sellers are done. Meanwhile, oversold RSIs at the low require its eventual retest. And extending down would next target 2688.00-2690.00.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… No more ranging.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s inside day and the overnight action preceding it were both pretty volatile. Both contained round trips that recovered entirely from relatively deep, steep dives — 11 points and 14 points, respectively. Tuesday’s intraday pattern had contained a similar sequence, sliding 25 points down to 2722.25 before recovering. Wednesday’s intraday low was also 2722.25, stopping short of the morning’s 2720.25. It became “unfinished business” as the balance of the session ranged choppily above it, closing at 2730.00-2731.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
The Globex session’s first order of business was to trend back down to Tuesday-Wednesday’s 2722.25 low. Once again only touching it was sufficient to hold its test. But no bounce developed, only a relatively narrow range through midnight, resisted by what is this morning’s 2725.50 bias-down signal. Probing the range’s lower-end momentarily before Europe’s opens touched Wednesday’s unfinished business at 2720.25 to neutralize it. But its reaction back up to 2725.50 was quickly rejected by a collapse that has now extended down to 2710.00.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Inside days don’t require resolving within any specific time frame or in either direction. Neither do inside days undermine the underlying trend. So, the rally’s next higher target at 2751.00 remains intact. The only questions are how deep of a rubber band stretch would be enough for its snap back up to resume the rally, and how deep would be enough to invalidate the 2751.00 target. “Lower prior highs” at 2708.00-2709.00 are the first opportunity to launch a reaction back up. The next opportunity would be 2688.00-2690.00, but any lower would start to suggest a much deeper reversal is underway. Two potentially bullish setups have formed. First is the past several sessions’ extended narrowing range, a pattern that often breaks falsely in one direction (down) before reversing more substantially in the opposite direction (up). Second is the relentless overnight trending that can be difficult to attract post-open reinforcements. I’ll have parameters on-screen at the open to identify whether the setups are extending or being rejected.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2715.75 would be likely also to exceed the 2718.25 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal, next targeting 2710.25. Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2720.75 would be likely at least to trigger the 2725.50 bias-down signal at 10:15.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2736.75 | 2735.50 |
| …would target | 2742.00 | 2740.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2726.75 | 2725.50 |
| …would target | 2719.50 | 2718.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
UPDATE: Gmail appears to have resolved its email issues. Please let me know otherwise if you’ve missed any of Wednesday’s Email Alerts. Thank you!
Wednesday was pretty volatile for an inside day. So was the overnight action preceding it. Both contained round trips that at first dived sharply, and then recovered entirely. Which defines Tuesday intraday pattern, sliding 25 points down to 2722.25 and then recovering back to the morning’s high.
The overnight action was shallower, dropping 11 points before recovering into the open. Which had initially surged before collapsing 14 points to touch Tuesday’s 2722.25 low. Its recovery was quick, and quickly peaked within 1 point of the post-open surge up to 2735.50. The post-open collapse had triggered bias-down, and confirmed it with fresh lows between 10:15-10:30. Its 2720.25 becomes “unfinished business.”
Nothing about an inside day requires that it resolve within any specific time frame, or even that it resolve first in either direction. Similarly, nothing about an inside day undermines the underlying trend, which in this case is targeting 2751.00. But a rubber band stretch down or else a gap up are the fastest ways to resume trending.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.