Posts by Rod David
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The overnight rally has extended to its own fresh highs at 2187.50. That’s also where Friday’s open blipped-up, and then blapped-down. Optimally for maintaining the bearish WedEX influence, resistance will become obvious within 2-3 minutes post-open. Alternatively, the opening 15 minutes of volatility could contain a bigger blip-up and blap-down. Otherwise, maintaining any more strength beyond the open would become more vulnerable to extending higher.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Coming down to it.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Friday’s expiration open had recovered from an overnight drop to 2176.50. The 2185.50 opening print was up 6 ticks, but it didn’t hold after blipping-up to 2187.50. Reversing down sharply attacked the overnight low to within 1 point at 2177.50. The balance of the session ranged sideways, resisted up to 2182.75. The bearish WedEX’s influence was minor, if any, but not contradicted or invalidated
Overnight action’s new info…
Gradual firming was soon hovering back in the 2185.00-2186.00 zone until Europe’s opens. A mini-plunge down to 2179.25 was recovered as quickly, and more so, piercing a fresh high at 2186.00.
If, then…
The bearish WedEX setup influence should send price trending down post-open, regardless of the opening print, and whether or not the slope is steep. The slope should be steeper than shallow, since Friday’s influence was nominal. And the opening print should still be within the current range. So, we’ll consider the WedEX influence moot only after gapping up above 2185.00-2186.00, or if not reversed down fast. Meanwhile, we’re also sensitive to the ongoing rally injecting a pullback to at least 2162.00, before that opportunity is inhibited by Thanksgiving’s seasonal bullishness. But the pullback potential could become a multi-session short-squeeze on the way up to 2220.00 if gapping up above 2185.00-2186.00 were maintained through the open and extended above 2192.00.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2186.25 would be likely to trigger the 2185.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2180.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Sunday night Globex link
A primary defeat in France, a fight to uphold Dodd-Frank in the US, but otherwise not much among weekend developments to influence overnight action. Monitor in the chaRTroom, anyway, by clicking here.
Saturday Review’s recording (for 11/19/16) …
This weekend’s Saturday Review caught up with the two major current influences: a test of the 2185.00-2186.00 objective, and a bearish WedEX still playing out. The likeliest possible resolutions are put into perspective of Thanksgiving’s seasonal bullishness influence. Other near-term bearish catalysts include a Mario Draghi appearance Monday, and FOMC Minutes being released into an unusually illiquid Wednesday afternoon environment.
Conclusion: A dip should be obvious quickly, or else it may be avoided until after the holiday.
Potential downsides for a dip was described, and the reasons for them, down to 2162.00 or 2141.00. Deeper potential was also described, but generally dismissed for the next downleg, since such productive reversals typically don’t originate at expiration.
Reversing down near-term is likely also because of other factors, such as Friday avoiding a new high close that would have entrenched its uptrend, interest rates having become very attractive vs. stock valuations, and my own proprietary observations among the ES-NQ-YM index risk spectrum. Extending higher anyway or eventually, however unlikely, would next target the 2220.00 area.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
GDX, GDXJ, GILD, IBB, AAPL, XLV, ADBE, CRM
11/19/2016 09:31:09 Mark Glezer: gm
11/19/2016 09:37:03 charlie:
11/19/2016 09:37:12 charlie: hi
11/19/2016 09:57:30 d: after the election would you categorize some the sectors of the market like the bond market,russell,financials went into an up crash?. Was the rally in the market was because of the bond markt sell offf?
11/19/2016 09:59:48 Mark Glezer: is 62 likelier than 41 in this setup?
11/19/2016 10:15:40 d: GILD,IBB
11/19/2016 10:21:44 Mark Glezer: elaborating on my Q above. 10 pts move on ES is roughly equivalent to 100 pts move on DOW. A move to 41 could be equivalent to 400 pts drop in DOW and that is not very likely over the course of the next 2 days without a significant news even
11/19/2016 10:21:47 Mark Glezer: event
11/19/2016 10:21:54 Bill G: APPL,XLV
11/19/2016 10:22:17 d: ADBE,CRM
11/19/2016 10:26:30 Bill G: Mark—A 200 pt drop in the Dow would be near the 18650 tgt and also 2142 es
11/19/2016 10:27:41 Mark Glezer: oops maybe I’m wrong
11/19/2016 10:30:12 Bill G: Mark, your not wrong, I meant 2162 es
11/19/2016 10:31:51 Mark Glezer: got u Bill – it’s cool
11/19/2016 10:33:19 Mark Glezer: that’s why I imply that 62 might be slightly likelier since 200 is likelier than 400 but Rod addressed that
11/19/2016 10:33:36 Bill G: I agree
11/19/2016 10:45:01 Bill G: Probably too many steps ahead, but if the mkt works its way up to 2220, woluld that be a reasonable level to expect an intermediate correction dn to 1980ish
11/19/2016 10:46:21 Mark Glezer: yes
11/19/2016 10:46:25 Bill G: yes
11/19/2016 10:46:53 d: Thanks
11/19/2016 10:46:56 Bill G: question
11/19/2016 10:46:58 Mark Glezer: thx
11/19/2016 10:47:02 Mark Glezer: Q
11/19/2016 10:47:02 charlie: tks
11/19/2016 10:47:05 Mark Glezer: above
11/19/2016 10:47:07 Bill G: above
11/19/2016 10:49:32 Bill G: thanks
11/19/2016 10:49:32 Mark Glezer: thx
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request.
We have two big developments to discuss — my upside target has been tested, retested, and re-retested without breaking, while we’re in the middle of a WedEX signal. All amidst a suddenly changed investment environment, which Zerohedge has helpfully described in bullet points:
Some context for the recent moves…
Russell 2000 Biggest 2 week gain since July 2009
Dow Biggest 2 week gain since Dec 2011
S&P Biggest 2 week gain since Oct 2014
EURUSD Longest win streak since Lehman (Oct 2008)
Dollar Index Biggest 2 week gain since Lehman (Oct 2008)
US Treasury Bond Biggest 2 week loss since Jan 2009
Global Bonds Biggest 2 week loss EVER
Gold Biggest 2 week loss since June 2013
Copper Biggest 2 week gain since Feb 2010Which leaves asset classes at extremes…
USD Index Most Overbought since September 2014
USDJPY Most Overbought since June 2015
USDCNH Most Overbought since Aug 2015
Dow Most Overbought since Nov 2014
Russell 2000 Most Overbought since Jan 2013
Major Financials SPDR Most Overbought since April 2010
Regional Financials Most Overbought EVER
Copper Most Overbought EVER
Gold Most Oversold since Nov 2015
Global Bonds Most Oversold since April 2000
EM Bonds Most Oversold since Dec 2014
Treasury Bond Most Oversold since June 2007Spot the odd ‘market’ out… US Equities are the only winners…