Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2187.50 | 2185.00 |
| …would target | 2194.00 | 2191.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2178.25 | 2175.75 |
| …would target | 2169.75 | 2167.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday morning exploited that meeting the 1.0655 target Thursday had extended lower lower through the close without relief. Trending even lower Friday is approaching support at 1.0545. Regardless, the decline’s momentum remains intact so long as bounces now hold 1.0683 as resistance.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s post-close retest of 1211.00 was broken overnight down to 1201.30, satisfying the minimum 1206.50 target. The 1196.50 target remains in-play so long as bounces now hold 1213.00 as resistance. .
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Retesting the 16.62 prior low Friday morning can now start the process of fluctuating around to try forming a durable Double Bottom. Trending down any further instead would suggest the decline is extending.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Completing the potential bottoming pattern needed one more selling attempt, and to absorb it. Fresh lows Thursday night tested the 152-13 support by 1 tick and then bounced Friday morning to 154-08, where uptrending resistance triggered a reaction down to 152-20. The difference between this range being either a bottoming pattern or a continuation pattern may depend on today closing back under 153-06 or above 154-08.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Caught up in OPEC headlines, the reaction down from testing 45.70 extended down to attack the recovery’s 44.30 pullback limit. Closing under 45.15 would launch a new downleg. But there is otherwise a higher target outstanding in the 48.25 area.
Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Friday above 2.80 left outstanding a lower gap at 2.62, while creating a new one back to Thursday’s close. Closing above 2.80 would still be bullish, especially if confirmed by a second consecutive higher close, and would be credible for launching a rally leg no matter how premature.
Mid-day Update… Waiting it out.
No-bias triggers as WedEX arrives.
REMINDER: I am away from the screens for today’s last timing window beginning at 2:30 ET… There will be no more updates and no market Wrap. Don’t forget about tomorrow morning’s Saturday Review.
Soon after triggering no-bias, a steep slide began that quickly touched its 2179.25 objective. Room for a fresh low down to 2177.50 was also touched before the bias environment was even close to lapsing.
The balance of the bias environment and the noon hour ranged narrowly at the lows. Firming through the noon hour’s end is now attacking 2182.00. That’s well under the afternoon’s 2184.25 bias-up signal.
This afternoon’s bearish WedEX is now influential. It might not prevent a bigger bounce, but it does suggest the bounce will fail. Whatever the price action, it should resolve in lower lows.
The influence will be relevant Monday, too. We’ll discuss it during this weekend’s Saturday Review. I’ll send info overnight.
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2186.75 | 2184.25 |
| …would target | 2192.00 | 2189.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2179.50 | 2177.00 |
| …would target | 2173.50 | 2171.00 |
| Signal NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Nov 21, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s Chicago Fed survey has no track record of influencing price action, and no other econ reports are scheduled. The pre-open Fed speaker is too early to influence intraday price action. But Mario Draghi makes an appearance at some point, and I don’t currently know the timing, but he’s highly-reliable for injecting volatility. Some people just have that… gift.
Stanley Fischer Speaks
8:00 AM ET
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
8:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
2-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET