Posts by Rod David
Post-open Review… Sooo close.
Almost triggered bias-up. Didn’t.
The open was greeted at the 2186.50 overnight high, testing the 2186.25 bias-up signal. A blip-up touched a new high at 2187.50 and then blapped-down to probe under 2184.00.
Recovering 2184.00 through 9:45 would have made triggering the bias-up signal likelier. But its reactions up never even touched 2186.25 again. And now 10:15 has passed.
This is a no-bias environment. Having tested the bias-up signal, an offsetting test of the 2179.25 bias-down signal is in-play. If tested this morning, then it should define the bias environment’s lower-end.
The signal has already been productive since triggering as fresh session lows touch 2182.00. Exiting the bias environment above its 2186.25 bias-up signal could still invalidate the 2179.25 objective below.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Yesterday’s highs have been probed, a couple of times, to at least 3 ticks above the entire 2185.00-2186.00 target area. Exiting the open at 9:45 beyond the 2184.00-2188.00 range should be indicative of whether the 2186.25 bias-up signal will trigger at 10:15.
PROGRAMMING NOTE: I am away from the screens for today’s last window.beginning at 2:30 ET. We’ll flesh out possible expiration action before then.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Hanging on.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Thursday fulfilled the last likely upside attraction, and it wasn’t even “unfinished business above.” A test of 2185.00-2186.00 was only likely to be visited while retesting 2180.00. The prior afternoon had gained traction to make Thursday morning likely to trend up. Thursday afternoon didn’t gain any new traction. Nor was the close under 2180.00 which would have been the earliest signal of upside momentum lapsing.
Overnight action’s new info…
Choppily ranging within Thursday afternoon’s 2180.50-2185.50 range suddenly started trending down from 2184.25 at Europe’s opens. It quickly extended down to 2176.25. Its reaction eked higher to retrace all but 3 ticks of the slide back up to 2183.50 .
If, then…
2185.00-2186.00 can be retested without probing higher, but there is room for noise up to 2192.00. Reacting down from either remains likely, but not required. Friday afternoon is likely to behave bearishly due to the WedEX signal, but that doesn’t prevent probing higher Friday morning. A pre-Thanksgiving drop should begin soon today or Monday, or else the most bearish template would be a trading range through the holiday.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2184.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2186.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2188.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2177.75 would be likely to trigger the 2179.25 bias-down signal at 10:15.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2188.75 | 2186.25 |
| …would target | 2194.25 | 2191.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2181.75 | 2179.25 |
| …would target | 2176.50 | 2174.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
There’s no “unfinished business above.” Thursday tested and held the 2185.00-2186.00 target that was likely to be visited while retesting 2180.00. There’s potential to 2192.00 just as noise, but it’s not required, and neither is any particular reaction.
Friday afternoon is likely to behave bearishly due to the WedEX signal. Closing Thursday under 2180.00 would have been optimal for the bearish setup — not preventing an intraday probe higher Friday, just dooming it to failure. Probing higher Friday morning would still be vulnerable to an afternoon reversal.
As for topping, that’s unlikely. Near-term drop, sure — if a drop is going to happen anytime soon, then it must begin Friday or Monday. Otherwise, the bullish seasonal influence of a holiday (next week’s Thanksgiving) will prevent downdrafts from gaining traction. But a durable top rarely happens at expiration.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.