Posts by Rod David
Pre-close View… Deer in headlights.
Target met, and action stopped.
The noon hour’s test of the 2185.00-2186.00 target was reversed quickly, and ultimately down to 2180.50.
Greeting tomorrow’s session from closing under 2180.00 would be optimal for the afternoon’s bearish WedEX influence. Closing higher today wouldn’t prevent afternoon weakness tomorrow, but it would likely limit it.
Meanwhile, back above 2184.25 today would make the high’s retest likely. And there’s probably too little time for that to reverse back under 2180.00.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Blipping up at Thursday’s open was rejected by probing fresh lows through the morning, and extending down to the 1.0655 target. And through it. Back above 1.0685 would signal the decline had ended.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Finally resuming the decline Thursday morning which extended to retest Monday’s 1211.00 low. It remains likely to be probed down to 1206.00, and probably also to 1196.50, so long as 1213.00 is broken intraday and its break is maintained.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s dip was attracted back down toward the 16.62 low which was still likely to be retested for being a “V” bottom. Attacking it stopped optimistically short of actually touching it, let alone probing it as a normal test would before being able to bottom.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Flat-to-lower ranging down to 153-20 Thursday didn’t produce a concerted selling attempt, which the bottoming pattern should still experience before completing. Concerted selling that doesn’t recover back above 153-07 by the close — and preferably higher — would risk breaking free of this week’s range to launch a new downleg.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Choppy ranging persisted Thursday at or under the rally’s initial 45.70 target. Resuming the rally would next target the 48.25 area.
Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday morning’s dip filled the target back down to Tuesday’s 2.70 close, still likely also to fill the gap back down to 2.62 before considering a bottom has formed, let alone before being able to launch a durable rally leg.
Mid-day Update… End of the road?
Upside targets met.
Fresh highs have probed 2180.00 up to 2185.00-2186.00 again. This time intraday, and a little more thoroughly than after Tuesday’s close.
The potential for reversing down is now greater, but the requirement is not. There is still room for noise up to 2192.00, which is also not required to be met.
Meanwhile, this afternoon triggered no-bias. So, its the bias environment’s upper-end should be defined by its 2186.25 bias-up signal. Probing above it would be doomed to failure.
Closing today back under 2180.00 would increase the vulnerability to trending down tomorrow afternoon. The bearish WedEX’s influence already suggests as much. So, closing today above 2180.00 isn’t likely.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Nov 18, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: This week’s Fed speakers have been busy. The pre-open speaker is too early for a reliable impact on post-open action. Another speaker at the open is known for her hawkishness, so the market might dip defensively in anticipation. LEI will be watched for inflationary signs, and the afternoon’s Fed speaker should keep market participants from becoming complacent before the weekend (and might punish those that do).
James Bullard Speaks
5:30 AM ET
*Esther George Speaks
9:30 AM ET
*William Dudley Speaks
9:35 AM ET
*Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
11:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
*Robert Kaplan Speaks
1:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2189.00 | 2186.25 |
| …would target | 2194.50 | 2191.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2182.50 | 2179.75 |
| …would target | 2176.75 | 2174.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.