Posts by Rod David
Post-open Review… Be ready.
Fresh intraday highs leaving fewer attractions above.
Yesterday afternoon’s buyers had gained traction for their efforts, so trending up this morning was
already likely. Simply not gapping down this morning would be more bullish than bearish.
The open barely touched yesterday’s 2174.00 cash session close before surging back up to Tuesday’s prior highs. Filling the gap up to its 2177.50 close was not at all resistant. The slope did slow upon approaching 2180.00, but it was probed up to 2181.50.
A lot of likely upside attractions are now neutralized. In their place, this morning’s 2177.75 bias-up signal has triggered. Its 2183.50 bias-up target is in-play. It remains in-play so long as the bias environment isn’t exited under this morning’s 2168.50 bias-down signal.
Tuesday’s post-close surge to 2185.00 can still be retested on the way to 2186.00. And there’s room for noise up to 2192.00. If testing higher highs is going to be rejected through expiration, then any upside should be satisfied today, before closing back under the 2180.00 area or lower.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Retesting the 2172.00 overnight low has bounced again. It only attacked yesterday afternoon’s 2175.75 high, still short of yesterday morning’s 2176.25 high. But it’s not a gap down, which is the first step to rallying this morning. Actually triggering the 2177.75 bias-up signal would be helpful, too.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Nervous energy.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Bouncing up to 2175.50 Wednesday afternoon gained traction, but in the least impressive way. The bias environment lapsed at the noon hour’s upper-end, but not necessarily above it, which would have been optimal. Instead, it was left to the final hour’s entry above the bias environment’s high, confirmed by the proxy window trending higher. All of which developed under the morning’s 2176.25 high, which remained un-probed through the close as price dipped to 2172.00. WedEX triggered an active bearish signal.
Overnight action’s new info…
Initially firming and gradually rallying probed Wednesday’s highs up to 2178.25. That was retraced entirely to greet Europe’s opens back down at 2172.00, which held. Wednesday’s highs are now being tested up to 2176.50.
If, then…
Thanks to having gained traction, trending up overnight isn’t required for resuming the rally this morning. But it would help. And until actually resolving up, there’s vulnerability to repeating Wednesday’s gap down. The minimum bullish objective is at least to retest Tuesday’s highs, and notice that the gap back to Tuesday’s 2177.50 close was tested already overnight. So, despite no gap indicated currently, gapping down anyway could be all the more bearish for having neutralized that attraction above. But simply avoiding a gap down should be more bullish than bearish, at least until the bearish WedEX’s influence begins tomorrow afternoon.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2179.75 would be likely to trigger the 2177.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2174.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2181.00 | 2177.75 |
| …would target | 2186.75 | 2183.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2171.50 | 2168.25 |
| …would target | 2165.75 | 2162.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Buyers gained traction Wednesday afternoon, but in the least impressive way. The bias environment lapsed at the noon hour’s upper-end, but not necessarily above it. The final hour’s entry was above the bias environment’s high, and the proxy window trended higher. But the morning’s high was never probed. Trending up overnight isn’t required for resuming the rally tomorrow morning, but it would help.
Until resolving up, there’s vulnerability to repeating Wednesday’s gap down on Thursday. That wouldn’t be bullish, at least not near-term. By the same token, not gapping down or trending down at Thursday’s open should be bullish for returning to Tuesday’s highs. And potentially higher, even if only briefly.
Meanwhile, WedEX triggered an active bearish signal. Thursday’s open can have a proxy effect, either to become an active bullish signal, or else to reinforce the bearish signal.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.