Posts by Rod David
Pre-close View… Shifting gears?
Choppy range has a small opening to rally.
The overnight drop had tested yesterday morning’s 2169.50 lower prior highs, and bounced. 
Testing 2169.50 post-open, too, would have been preferable, and probably would have produced a recovery. Instead, the post-open bounce reversed down from 2176.25 to retest 2169.50.
The afternoon’s no-bias environment was unremarkable, but it has lapsed. And now the final hour has been entered, above the bias environment’s high at 2174.00. Trending up through the 3:10-3:20 proxy window to 2175.75 is signaling that buyers gained traction.
Upside traction, after sellers failed through multiple timing windows to leverage a gap down into anything deeper.
So, I’m still giving an upside resolution the benefit of the doubt. That’s still likely to be only a temporary upside resolution, thanks to the two-day pattern. I’ll describe that during today’s post-market Wrap, along with the WedEX indicator.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s narrowly ranging session didn’t alter the ongoing decline next targeting 1.6055, which resumed Wednesday morning down to 1.0680.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s flat-to-higher ranging extended the corrective bounce while maintaining the downside targets of 1206.00 and probably also 1196.50, so long as bounces don’t recover 1239.00-1243.00.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Already having maximized its room for a corrective bounce up to 17.10 Tuesday, Wednesday morning began dipping to potentially fulfill the likely retest of its 16.62 low.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Dipping overnight to attack 153-07 keeps alive the patterns potential bottoming, but it’s still premature for a durable rally leg.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
A temporary reaction down to the APA report after Tuesday’s close was recovered to a fresh high overnight, but that was also reversed down to attack 45.00. Wednesday’s morning’s EIA report triggered a surge to fresh highs above the rally’s 45.70 target, next targeting the 48.25 area.
Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Wednesday probably only delays filling the gap back down to Friday’s 2.62 close, and also creates another gap below at Tuesday’s close. Neither helps to greet Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength. But any knee-jerk reaction down that tests both lower attractions and recovers them would be bullish.
Mid-day Update… Start and stop. Stop. Stop. Start and
Overnight rally retraced but not reversed, also not resumed.
Already testing yesterday morning’s 2169.50 lower prior highs pre-open was sufficient to launch a recovery. Holding a post-open test of 2169.50 would have been more reliable. And probably more successful, since the post-open bounce only tested 2176.25 before falling back down to 2169.00.
2169.00 was still being tested as the afternoon bias environment began. The bias-down signal was another 2 points lower, so it didn’t trigger. It hasn’t been rejected much yet, either. Bounces are only attacking 2173.00.
Not rallying this morning would have been likely to produce a new downleg. Not yet reversing down by now suggests any later attempt will fail. Regardless, trending out of the bias environment in either direction would be likely to extend.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Nov 17, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s econ calendar is both busy and high-profile. The pre-open CPI data will be watched for inflationary pressures. Any obvious price reaction to it is likely to be duplicated by the morning’s other econ reports. And it’s likely to be addressed by the day’s two Fed speakers, who will keep focus on the upcoming potential for a rate hike.
*Consumer Price Index
8:30 AM ET
Housing Starts
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
8:30 AM ET
*William Dudley Speaks
8:50 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
E-Commerce Retail Sales
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
10-Yr TIPS Auction
1:00 PM ET
*Charles Evans Speaks
2:45 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2178.25 | 2175.50 |
| …would target | 2183.75 | 2181.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2170.75 | 2168.25 |
| …would target | 2165.25 | 2163.00 |
| Signal NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.