Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2168.50 | 2165.50 |
| …would target | 2175.00 | 2172.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2156.50 | 2153.50 |
| …would target | 2151.00 | 2148.00 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday’s session didn’t accomplish much. It was more lightly-attended being the Veteran’s Day holiday, and a Friday. Limited sponsorship led to an Inside Day, despite beginning with a gap down. It’s still only “ineffectual pessimism,” which tends to be bullish, but has yet to be exploited.
Nothing was changed by Friday’s price action. Wednesday night’s test of the 2180.00 objective may stand, but it’s still likely to be tested intraday. And it’s still likely to hold that test, with or without probing it up to 2185.00-2186.00.
We’ll discuss that setup and others, and closely examine how Tuesday night’s plunge affects the bigger picture, during this weekend’s Saturday Review. I’ll email a reminder and link overnight.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Pre-close View… Can’t rise above its source.
Inside day hasn’t been shaken.
This morning’s dip didn’t touch yesterday’s low, making today — so far — an “inside day.” This is a holiday, and now Friday afternoon. Sponsorship for trending isn’t likely to suddenly appear.
Still, the final hour’s entry was under the bias environment’s low. Trending down to fresh afternoon lows through the 3:10-3:20 timing window would be credible for extending down through the close.
Otherwise, fresh post-open highs would be difficult before the close.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s gap down to the 1.09.15 sell signal had failed several intraday attempts to trend lower. Friday’s open blipped-up before reversing down sharply to fresh lows at 1.0845. No immediate recovery is likely before extending lower, especially so long as bounces hold 1.0885.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing under 1252.50 overnight didn’t suffice for fulfilling its test. Instead, it chipped away at support, which gave way through the morning for new lows testing and retesting 1227.00. The drop undermines the prior rally’s confirmed breakout, and is unlikely to recover suddenly after the weekend.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Breaking under 18.25 Friday morning extended down sharply through its 17.80 objective to attack prior lows at 17.10 to within a dime. Closing back above 17.45 is the minimum requirement to begin signaling the drop has ended.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Fulfilling the 155-30 target extended lower Friday to 155-03 instead of recovering 156-16 to establish that a bottom is forming. Closing back above 156-16 Monday would still keep the door open to bottoming.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The 44.15-44.30 pullback limit failed to hold overnight and Friday gapped down to the decline’s 43.75 target then extended down to fresh lows. A new downleg is underway, next targeting 38.70.
Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s narrow ranging extended Thursday’s inside day, and again did not reject recent lows, suggesting that any rally effort short of 2.80 would be unreliable.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Nov 14, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: No econ reports are scheduled for Monday. One intraday Fed speaker may contribute some headlines that influence price action, just as the afternoon’s bias environment is being signaled.
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
*Robert Kaplan Speaks
1:20 PM ET
Jeffrey Lacker Speaks
4:30 PM ET