Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2161.50 | 2158.25 |
| …would target | 2167.25 | 2164.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2152.50 | 2149.50 |
| …would target | 2147.00 | 2143.75 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Sellers step in after buyers fear to tread.
Ranging and ranging and ranging around the gap down finally breaks.
The bias timing window through 10:15 ranged choppily around the opening print. The bias-down target was triggered grudgingly, and it was met barely. That late dip could have served as a rubber band to snap back up. But a bounce attacked 2157.50 and is now reacting down sharply to attack 2151.00.
It was a late bias-down, and the same leg that invoked the grace period also attacked the 2151.75 bias-down target to within 3 ticks. It didn’t require being met, but now it has been probed.
The market still risks a deeper pullback since resuming the rally has been delayed. And this being a Friday, the morning’s late bias-down can persist through the noon hour. Its minimum target is met, twice, so a recovery is still possible. But it wouldn’t be signaled from under 2157.50.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Bouncing off of the 2151.25 overnight low has extended up to 2161.50. Reacting down 5 points from there is essentially greeting this morning’s open at its 2157.50 bias-down signal. There’s no requirement to resolve in either direction in any particular time frame. But the morning’s bias — putting into play the bias-down target, or an offsetting test of the bias-up signal — is likely to define price action through the noon hour.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Wider orbit.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Thursday afternoon’s reaction down from 2175.50 stopped short of Its minimum objective to probe under 2160.00, and only attacked 2162.00 during the position-squaring window. No bounce developed, and the balance of the session only ranged narrowly around Wednesday’s late-afternoon ~2168.00 high. That was under the morning’s 2178.50 high, which had stopped short of the 2180.50 overnight high. And 2180.00 had been the rally’s next higher objective.
Overnight action’s new info…
A slightly deeper dip still stopped short of 2160.00 before bouncing to 2170.50..But a drop that began with Europe’s opens has extended down sharply to test this morning’s 2151.75 bias-down target by 2 ticks. Its reaction is attacking 2160.00.
If, then…
Probing the prior day’s high and closing back under it is not a sign of strength. Yesterday’s close was AT Wednesday’s high, which doesn’t represent any stronger of a rally. Overnight action has dipped deeper, but remains within yesterday’s range, which also qualifies as orbiting around Wednesday’s high. Extending the rally still can’t afford much of a delay to resuming post-open, or else a much deeper pullback will develop. This being a Friday, the morning’s bias often persists through the noon hour — and there’s plenty of room below for a correction.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2154.25 would be likely to trigger the 2157.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2160.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2176.00 | 2172.25 |
| …would target | 2183.25 | 2179.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2161.25 | 2157.50 |
| …would target | 2155.50 | 2151.75 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.