Posts by Rod David
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Thursday afternoon’s reaction down from 2175.50 was extended to attack 2162.00 during the position-squaring window. But the balance of the session only ranged narrowly around the close-quarters Double Top that had defined Wednesday’s late-afternoon high. Probing the prior day’s high and closing back under it is not a sign of strength. Closing AT the prior high isn’t really any stronger. So, extending the rally on this leg probably can’t afford much of a delay, or else a much deeper pullback will become likely.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Pacing itself.
Rally hovering just under highs.
Post-open rallying through this morning was derailed by such substantial selling pressure that it reversed down from being up 18 points at 2178.50. The reversal down was so substantial that both bias-up parameters were rejected, and the bias-down signal was almost triggered, too.
But the reversal proved no more durable than the post-open surge. Perhaps less so. The 30-point point plunge to 2147.75 was substantial. Its abrupt origin and its steep slope were dramatic. But it was never actually productive, since it barely touched Wednesday afternoon’s low. And it wasn’t durable, since it recovered all but 3 points to the 2175.50 afternoon’s high.
None of which is being exploited. The position-squaring window is being greeted 10 points off of the recovery high, back down at the 2165.00 afternoon lows. Extending down would target a test of 2160.00, if not also an attack on 2154.00. Otherwise, back above 2168.75 could resume the rally to fresh session highs.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s open gapped down to 1.0915 and probed under it several times, but continually returned to 1.0915 to avoid a clean break under it that would require extending to fresh lows before the next credible rally effort can begin.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
A shallower bounce than Tuesday night’s test of 1291.50 was reversed down again into Thursday’s open, and extended lower under 1266.00 down to 1258.00 before returning to 1266.00. The next lower objective at 1252.50 would be in-in play unless 1275.00 were recovered first.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Flat-to-higher ranging Thursday within Wednesday’s range seemingly awaited Gold’s resolution to its attraction below. Regardless, closing back above 18.80 would signal at least a retest of Tuesday night’s rally to 19.00.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Without already trying to bounce overnight out of Wednesday’s intraday plunge to new lows, lower lows targeting 155-30 are likely to be fulfilled before a credible recovery attempt can begin.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Flat or flat-to-lower ranging Thursday does not fulfill the requirement to quickly validate Wednesday’s test of 45.70 resistance. The window remains open for a break above it until it holds another test, and so long as 44.15 holds as support.
Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Thursday held 2.60 support and largely remained within Wednesday’s range throughout an otherwise muted reaction to the morning’s EIA report. The first breakout from this setup in either direction would not be reliable for extending until confirmed the following day.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Nov 11, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Banks are closed Friday for Veteran’s Day, but markets remain open. The morning’s only econ report is post-open, high-profile, and tends to be influential to price action. The afternoon’s rig count hasn’t influenced price action during the past several weeks, but that may have been a function of Crude Oil’s decline which has reached its target.
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2170.50 | 2166.50 |
| …would target | 2177.00 | 2173.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2154.25 | 2150.50 |
| …would target | 2148.00 | 2144.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.