Posts by Rod David
Post-open Review… (Delayed due to connectivity issues)
Opening bounce meets post-open plunge.
Opening at 2168.00 never dipped any deeper before soon resolving up sharply. But the 2180.50 overnight high — essentially the rally’s next higher objective — was only attacked to test resistance at 2178.00 before reversing back down.
And down. And down.
The 2171.00 bias-up target was retraced aggressively, on the way down to touch the 2164.25 bias-up signal in time to invoke the grace period. 
The 2154.25 bias-down signal was attacked to within 3 ticks at 10:30, just when its offsetting test was being triggered by a late no-bias signal.
But this morning’s no-bias wouldn’t be completely satisfied by the offsetting test of signals. Having tested the bias-up target, an offsetting test of the bias-down target was required, too. So the drop extended down to probe the 2148.75 bias down target by 1 point.
Bouncing back up to 2160.00 was retraced entirely. Its reaction down and a couple of shallower bounces have formed a Descending Triangle pattern. Attempts to reject it back above 2156.00 and 2160.00 are ongoing — the bias environment began lapsing at 2156.00, and now the noon hour entry is testing 2160.00.
Entering the noon hour above 2160.00 would be credible for launching a retest of overnight highs. The morning’s drop was dramatic and substantial, but not otherwise relevant since yesterday afternoon’s bias environment low has not been broken. Not resuming the rally today wouldn’t necessarily be bearish — not so long as fresh lows are avoided.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
This morning’s 2171.00 pullback limit held the first reaction down from the 2180.50 overnight high, bouncing 8 points. Bouncing off of its retest was shallower and briefer, and temporary, breaking lower to test yesterday afternoon’s “lower prior highs” down to 2165.00. Since the rally gained traction yesterday, resuming it or inverting it should be obvious within the first several post-open minutes.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… More optimism.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s open gapped down at or under Tuesday morning’s 2119.00 low, and quickly rallied 22 points to attack Tuesday’s high up to 2141.50. Oh, and Tuesday’s low was probed by 91 points overnight. So, not only was the crash isolated to the overnight, but the intraday exploited it, so sellers were all but marginalized for the day. Bias-down signal and target held the morning’s correction that attacked 2125.25, and the balance of the session rallied to fresh highs at 2166.50. The rally gained traction by entering the final hour above the bias environment’s high and then trending up through the 3:10-3:2- timing window. That didn’t prevent a late corrective dip down to 2156.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Wednesday’s late pullback consolidated relatively narrowly around 2160.00 until midnight. Suddenly surging to fresh highs peaked within 1 tick of this morning’s 2171.00 bias-up target. The rally extended out of Europe’s opens and tested the next higher objective’s 2180.00 area by 2 ticks. Its reaction back down to 2171.00 was retraced by 8 points, but now another reaction down is testing 2171.00.
If, then…
Wednesday afternoon’s traction makes Thursday morning likely to trend higher, often regardless of its opening print. We’ll want that confirmed by there being almost no delay in rallying post-open Thursday, since the next higher target in the 2180.00 area is already fulfilled overnight. The next higher objective would be fresh highs probing 2-3 points above 2184.25. Otherwise, inverting the morning’s bullish influence into a pullback would target the 2167.00 area. Both legs are possible today, in either order — so today’s session would be more bullish if the morning corrects down before resuming the rally, and more bearish if fresh highs were to print first.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2174.00 would be likely also to recover the 2171.00 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal, which would essentially next target 2180.00. Exiting the open above 2168.00 would be likely to trigger the 2164.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2161.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2168.25 | 2164.25 |
| …would target | 2175.00 | 2171.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2158.25 | 2154.25 |
| …would target | 2152.75 | 2148.75 |
| 7Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS-UP PARAMETERS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Today’s post-market Wrap recording identifies most of the new influences that arose during election night and in its aftermath.
Attractions below:
The retest of last Friday’s 2080.00-2094.00 range that was required by the Comey rally’s gap up. Its retest is required intraday, so the overnight drop did not fulfill it. The “new Globex trend extreme” that developed under prior lows, which requires being retested eventually intraday. The low’s limit-down, which also is historically retested.
Buying pressure:
The low’s 61.8% retracement of the Brexit reaction’s plunge, which serves by proxy as its retest. Isolating the probe under Tuesday’s lows to the overnight so that sellers might be marginalized for the day. The successful setup often extends for multiple sessions, retracing multiple downlegs.
Upside attractions:
Wednesday morning’s break above downtrending resistance that had been guiding the two-week slide. Its ~2167.00 “connector” was tested at the intraday high, and any higher would target fresh highs probing its 2184.25 anchor. Meanwhile, intraday patterns already in-play are next targeting the 2180.00 area.
Near-term momentum:
Buyers gained traction by entering the final hour above the bias environment’s high and then trending up through the 3:10-3:2- timing window. This makes Thursday morning likely to trend higher, regardless of gapping up. Wednesday’s mid-day Ascending Triangle already broke higher and a dip corrected the break higher. So, whatever the opening print, there should be no delay in rallying.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.