Posts by Rod David
Pre-close View… Yuge.
Still probing fresh session highs.
The next higher objective of 2160.00 was tested minutes before noon. Its reaction down to 2146.25 formed an Ascending Triangle that contained two timing windows of price action.
This afternoon’s no-bias environment resolved up when the bias environment began lapsing. That was still overlapping the noon hour’s 2156.25 high. But the final hour was entered above the bias environment’s 2159.00 high. And the 3:10-3:20 timing window trended up to fresh session highs.
That’s traction, in a setup which tends to play-out the same day. Back under 2161.75 would start to signal a corrective dip underway instead. Otherwise, the balance of the session should essentially trend up. The next higher objective is essentially 2180.00.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Fluctuation between closes can’t be prevented, but it doesn’t necessarily affect the objective in-play. Tuesday night’s surge up to 1.1315 didn’t prevent opening flat-to-lower Wednesday and extending to the 1.1010 target. Potential to 1.0965 was fulfilled soon afterward by fresh lows testing 1.0940. Back above 1.0995 would signal the decline’s momentum was ending.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Attacking the pullback’s 1266.00 target to within $2 overnight was recovered to sharply higher highs overnight testing 1338.00. Its reaction down Wednesday morning probed under the 1291.50 buy signal down to 1270.00. Now recovering 1284.00 would signal another rally leg, and prevent extending down to 1252.50.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Surging overnight to test 19.00 was retraced entirely Wednesday morning to fill the gap back to Tuesday’s 18.30 close. An intraday retest of the overnight highs is likely before a durable decline would be credible.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Surging overnight to attack 165-02 was reversed down sharply, back under the 162-16 sell signal and through its minimum 160-10 objective to test 159-16. The decline extended intraday down to 158-22, next targeting 155-30 while bounces are likely to hold 158-04.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Already retesting the decline’s 43.75 target overnight and recovering to open Wednesday flat-to-higher has created potential for avoiding a new downleg. Closing above 44-30 helps to seal a bottom. Already testing 45.70 now requires breaking it to launch a rally to and through 48.25.
Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s open was essentially flat with the close of Tuesday’s gap down session. Extending down to 2.56 was recovered to the week’s “higher prior lows” at 2.74. The prior week’s higher prior lows above at 2.86 must be recovered to seal a bottom. Meanwhile, Thursdays open is not being greeted from a position of strength, although a bottom pattern does not require fresh lows..
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Nov 10, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday night and Thursday morning’s Fed speakers will be the first opportunities for any official glimpse into Fed policy following this mid-week market roiling. And the 30-year auction comes into a the bond’s recent plunge to new lows, albeit fulfilling downside targets .
John Williams Speaks
WED 9:00 PM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*James Bullard Speaks
9:15 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
*30-Yr Bond Auction
1:00 PM ET
Treasury Budget
2:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2161.75 | 2157.75 |
| …would target | 2168.25 | 2164.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2146.75 | 2142.75 |
| …would target | 2139.50 | 2135.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Not going down without a(nother) fight.
What overnight crash?
Opening at 2118.25 surged within 3 minutes to test our first objective at the 2134.50 “higher prior lows.” Reacting down came within 1 tick of its 2121.25 target before bouncing again.
The 2140.75 bias-up signal’s test sent price back down again, this time to within 1 tick of the 2125.25 bias-down target.
Along the way down, the 2130.50 bias-down target was overlapped for long enough to invoke the grace period. After dipping to within 1 tick of the bias-down target, a bounce retested the bias-down signal at 10:30. This triggered a noN-bias.
noN-bias. Not bias-down, whose target was met to within 1 tick, anyway. Not no-bias, whose offsetting bias signal was already tested, anyway. But noN-bias.
Now the bias environment is lapsing. The higher prior lows are being probed to the next objective, retesting the 2152.50 overnight high up to 2153.75. Knowing the overnight low requires a retest — “new Globex trend extreme,” limit down — this seems like nothing more than a post-Brexit buying blindly strategy. That doesn’t sound rash, at all…
1-minute and 3-minute RSIs are simultaneously overbought into the highs. Reacting down would be required to recover. Meanwhile, the overnight high’s retest could attack 2160.00.