Posts by Rod David
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Noisy, in the range-y.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Gapping up Tuesday to 2728.00 extended higher to touch the rally’s next target at 2737.00. A deep reversal through the noon hour barely probed negative territory, but came within 1 tick of the afternoon’s 2722.00 bias-down target. Which itself can form a bottom, but its recovery was premature. Recovering to probe the morning’s high by 3 ticks up to 2737.75 began during the bias-down environment, from under its 2728.50 signal, which requires its eventual retest (and often also the 1:20 print, which was 2725.50). Reacting down through the 2735.00 cash session close extended to 2731.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday’s late reaction down extended slightly lower at the Globex open to attack 2730.00. Sideways ranging up to 2735.00 persisted through the State of the Union and midnight. The range suddenly resolved down, sliding sharply through Europe’s opens to 2724.50. Its reaction up just tested the earlier range’s 2730.00 lower-end.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
A “pre-check” Email Alert this morning received zero bouncebacks, suggesting that yesterday’s Yahoo and Gmail issues are resolved. If you provided an alternative email address, you’re welcome to remove it from the distribution list at your leisure. As always, please check the Roadmap blog for the latest scheduled post if you ever suspect an Alert has not been delivered to you... The rally’s adjusted 2751.00 target and its room for noise up to 2757.00 remain in-play. Upside momentum isn’t intact, since yesterday’s late dip violated the afternoon rally’s last pullback limit. The rally was suspicious anyway, having left “unfinished business” below at 2728.50 if not also at 2725.50. Both were neutralized overnight, stopping short of Tuesday’s 2722.25 low to (so far) avoid reversing the near-term trend back down. that doesn’t reinstate upside momentum by default, still needing to trigger a buy signal. And like Monday’s open, that’s difficult to do from opening within the range, so the initial strategy will be to exercise patience, and to first consider fading a trending attempt.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2731.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2727.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2725.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2739.50 | 2738.25 |
| …would target | 2744.75 | 2743.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2729.00 | 2727.75 |
| …would target | 2722.00 | 2720.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
UPDATE: Some subscribers still not receiving Email Alerts due to the Gmail issues, and elsewhere. You may provide an alternative email address to use temporarily, just include it in a reply to this post.
Tuesday afternoon’s rally was premature. It originated during the bias-down signal, from under its 2728.50 bias-down signal, requiring its eventual retest. That didn’t prevent probing the morning’s high by 3 ticks up to 2737.75. The high held its test, and its reaction violated a pullback limit. But momentum didn’t reverse down.
The rally’s adjusted 2751.00 target and its room for noise up to 2757.00 remain in-play. But not upside momentum after a late dip violated the latest pullback limit. So, no hold-long, despite the attraction above. And no hold-short, despite the “unfinished business” below at 2728.50 (which can be neutralized overnight, and often also retraces the 1:20 print which was 2725.50).
Because Tuesday morning’s range contained essentially all of the afternoon, opening under Tuesday’s 2722.25 low could launch a more developed pullback.By the same token, avoiding an immediate break under Tuesday’s low should allow the rally to extend, possibly without delay.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The preferably 1.1485 pullback limit was probed to its room for noise down to 1.1450 Tuesday. Still holding keeps alive the rally potential. But the window is not unlimited, and not already rallying into Tuesday afternoon is not helpful.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Flat, narrow ranging Tuesday held “lower prior highs” to remain position for retesting last week’s highs up to 1333.00.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s dip back down to the 15.82 buy signal held as support to maintain near-term potential for filling Thursday’s 16.16 opening gap.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Initial strength Tuesday quickly extended through the 145-16 buy signal to test 146-00, and then retraced back down to 145-16. Closing higher Wednesday would signal a bigger rally underway targeting at least last week’s highs.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Choppy sideways ranging Tuesday held the range’s upper-end to remain within proximity of probing fresh highs, greeting Wednesday’s EIA from a position of strength.
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Fresh lows were probed overnight, but Tuesday’s intraday developed entirely within Monday’s range. Strength, or not, a bottom can’t form until a recovery into “higher prior lows” is retraced to fill the gap back down to Monday’s open.
Mid-day Update… Backing-and-filling.
Morning’s target launches steep reversal down.
[Apparently issues with Gmail and Yahoo are interfering with the Email Alerts. Delivery is sporadic, so be sure to check the blog for posts if they seem delayed. Thank you to all who replied to earlier tests.]
Still overlapping this morning’s 2730.00 bias-up target prevented renewing its signal. It was still a bias-up environment, and its 2737.00 renewed bias-up target was met anyway. And touching it at the morning’s high reacted back down to 2730.00 as the bias environment began lapsing.
The noon hour broke lower, coming to within 1 tick of this afternoon’s 2722.00 bias-down target. The low’s oversold RSIs formed as the noon hour was lapsing, so it doesn’t require a retest. But back under 2724.75 would start to signal the low’s retest underway. It’s still a bias-down environment, so perhaps deeper.
Meanwhile, the open’s 2728.00 gap will want to be retested after having retraced back into a prior session’s range. The reaction up from attacking 2722.00 has come to within 1-2 points. Neutralizing its attraction and then triggering a sell signal would be more vulnerable to extending down further.