Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Feb 6, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: No high-profile or reliably influential econ reports are scheduled for Wednesday. (Barely anything more for the balance of the week, too.). But any reaction to the pre-open report would likely be duplicated in reaction to the post-open reports.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
International Trade
8:30 AM ET
Productivity and Costs
8:30 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
10-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2736.25 | 2735.00 |
| …would target | 2744.00 | 2742.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2729.75 | 2728.50 |
| …would target | 2723.25 | 2722.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… And higher.
Gap up, extending, and extending again.
Rallying 10-11 points out of Europe’s opens had tested 2728.25 before correcting down to 2724.75. That began a narrowing range which formed an Ascending Triangle. Greeting the open at its upper-end almost literally exploded higher.
Resistance at 2732.50-2733.25 pushed price back down to the pre-open Triangle’s 2728.25 upper-end in time to avoid renewing the bias-up signal. It’s still a bias-up environment, and fresh highs just attacked 2735.00.
Extending higher would next target 2737.00, and potentially 2743.50, on the way to the rally’s 2751.00 (revised) target and its room for noise up to 2757.00. Otherwise, RSIs haven’t reflected any enthusiasm, and back under 2730.25 would target 2726.25, potentially lower.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Paradigm shift.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Monday’s open was barely greeted with a pulse. But it wasn’t greeted in decline so a pullback wasn’t likely. That didn’t automatically default to resuming the rally. Neither of the two consecutive closes above 2701.00 securing the rally’s next higher objective at 2756.00 was impressive. Even less impressive was narrow ranging since Thursday afternoon, and now greeting Monday’s open unchanged at Friday’s 2704.50 close. So, our strategy was to consider fading tests of either end of the range, which prepared us for buying into the open’s dip to 2697.00 that held the bias-down signal. Reversing up to the morning’s 2710.25 bias-up signal extended to trigger and then fulfill the afternoon’s bias-up target and Friday’s “unfinished business” at 2719.00-2719.50. A late break higher touched 2725.00 into and out of GOOG’s post-close earnings.
Overnight action’s new info…
We have new behavior from the overnight. If follows GOOG’s earning reaction having surged $30, and then collapsing $60 back into negative territory. The Globex open soon retraced its late surge from 2725.00 down to 2716.25 before midnight. Narrow sideways ranging again developed, similarly to the prior two nights. But very soon after Europe’s opens a 10-1/2 point rally began to 2728.25. Its probe above yesterday’s highs developed complexity to qualify as a “new Globex trend extreme” before reacting down to 2725.00.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Nothing requires extending higher uninterrupted. Yesterday’s rally created more room to expend and absorb selling pressure while maintaining momentum to the 2756.00 target in-play. Last night’s “new Globex trend extreme” requires an intraday retest, which helps to ensure a reaction down will recovery. Monday’s open opted not to exploit its vulnerability to a deeper pullback, and so might this morning. Attempting to extend the rally post-open and only retesting the overnight high could probe back under the overnight lows.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2723.75 would be likely to trigger the 2722.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2717.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2723.25 | 2722.00 |
| …would target | 2731.25 | 2730.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2715.25 | 2714.00 |
| …would target | 2707.00 | 2705.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.