Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
1.1485 was still being tested as support into Monday’s open, and then probed intraday. Closing back above 1.1520 can still launch another upleg.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sunday night’s dip tested Tue-Wed’s “lower prior highs” so that retesting Thursday’s 1328.30 gap up above all prior highs. Closing back above 1323.00 would put into play fresh highs targeting 1333.00.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s low had already retraced Wednesday’s “lower prior highs,” and the retracement extended lower Sunday night, filling the ga back down to last Monday’s 15.75 close. Closing back above 15.82 — which was already being probed Monday morning — can now retest Thursday’s 16.13 gap up to neutralize its attraction.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s dip had held the gap between Wednesday’s close and Thursday’s gap up at 145-28. Extending lower Sunday night persisted sharply lower Monday morning down to 145-00. Back above 145-16 would target at least 146-04, and possibly resume the rally.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Narrowly ranging around Friday’s highs Sunday night gave way to gap down Monday morning and retrace lower prior highs at 53.30. Closing back above 54.15 keeps alive upside potential
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Having ended the week testing new extremes, Monday was likely to extend lower, which had begun already Sunday night. Gapping down to fresh lows at 2.65 Monday makes an immediate recovery unlikely, even if Tuesday were to begin rallying.
Mid-day Update… Ratcheting up.
Now probing Friday morning’s highs.
The open’s lower and lower lows ultimately held a test of this morning’s 2698.75 bias-down signal. Its offsetting test of the 2710.25 bias-up signal was fulfilled as the bias environment began lapsing. Price held up through the noon hour, extending flat-to-higher. Now Friday morning’s highs are being probed up to 2717.25.
This afternoon’s 2713.00 bias-up signal has triggered, putting into play its 2719.00 bias-up target. Friday morning’s “unfinished business” at 2719.25 would be neutralized there, too.
Nothing requires meeting either target today, or extending even high if met. RSIs are overbought at the high, so a reaction down would require being recovered. A reaction has room to 2711.00 before suggesting a more substantial detour down is underway.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Feb 5, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s post-open services data aren’t individually reliable for influencing price action. But their timing to each other is vulnerable to reinforcing a surprise, or to contradicting the other — in either case, creating more volatility.
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
*PMI Services Index
9:45 AM ET
*ISM Non-Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
3-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2714.25 | 2713.00 |
| …would target | 2720.25 | 2719.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2704.25 | 2703.00 |
| …would target | 2699.00 | 2697.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Home, home in the narrow range.
Breakout attempt fails.
The narrow 2701.00-2709.00 overnight range persisted through the open, which was unchanged at Friday’s 2704.50 close. A couple of probes lower down to 2699.50 and 2697.00 each recovered back to or through unchanged. Ultimately, the 2698.75 bias-down signal held its test as support through 10:15 to trigger no-bias, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2710.25 bias-up signal.
So, straight up from here? Not necessarily. Unchanged at 2704.50 is natural resistance, and has yet to attract reinforcements above its tests. Back under 2699.50 (being pierced now) could trigger a retest of Friday’s 2695.50 low, which would probably include 2694.00. Back above 2703.00 and 2707.00 would confirm that the bias-up signal’s test is underway.