Posts by Rod David
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Narrower, yet.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Defensive posturing ahead of Friday’s pre-open Employment Situation report had slid 12 points to attack 2696.00. That created room for a favorable knee-jerk reaction, a 12-13 point surge back up to Thursday’s 2709.00 high. That’s a lot of volatility, but it was all within the prior afternoon’s range, including a relatively narrow overnight range. So, trending beyond the range wasn’t likely, especially if not done early. The early trending attempt did probe fresh highs up to 2716.00, and triggered a late bias-up, which fresh highs through the 10:30 grace period confirmed. But its 2719.50 bias-up target became “unfinished business” as price eventually retested the overnight low down to 2695.50. The last hour’s surge ended at 2704.50.
Overnight action’s new info…
Ranging has only narrowed, despite another aggressive start. Sunday night’s 2699.00 open immediately retraced 61.8% of Friday’s late surge, and immediately reacted back up to probe positive territory, and to once again find resistance at 2708.00-2709.00. Sliding into Europe’s opens tested and retested 2701.00, only to recover 2709.00. Price is currently unchanged at Friday’s 2704.50 close
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Friday’s late surge qualified as a second consecutive close above 2701.00, confirming the rally’s next higher objective at 2756.00 is in-play. None of which prevents an interim detour with room down to 2656.00-2666.00. If anything, Friday’s narrow ranging around 2701.00 makes a pullback likely, and last night’s narrow ranging makes a pullback likelier. Even suddenly trying to rally this morning would be suspicious, and the burden of proof would be on buyers until maintaining a breakout through a relevant timing window.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 within the 2701.00-2708.00 range would be unlikely to trigger either bias signal this morning.
Saturday Review’s recording (for 2/2/19) …Back to baby steps.
Friday’s second consecutive close above 2701.00 was borderline. Not too borderline to immediately question its relevance — which is to confirm the rally’s next higher target at 2756.00 is in-play. But borderline enough to suspect at least a nominal corrective dip testing 2681.00-2682.00 could develop, or even a brief dip to 2666.00 before resuming the rally. Reversing the trend down without testing the rally’s next higher objective would require closing back under 2666.00 and lower, and not very quickly. This weekend’s Saturday Review describes the patterns creating those paths, and outlines possible paths for anticipating Monday’s influences.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
WDC, AMD, GOOGL, EA, GDX, GLD, SWKS, SFLY, DATA, FEYE, FTNT, IRBT, NEWR, YUM, GRUB
transcript
—————– (02/02/2019 09:34) —————–
ljr: gm
jp: gm
Bill G: gm
Mark G: gm
David B: Good Morning
Rod David: Please post questions and comments as they occur to you
—————– (02/02/2019 09:42) —————–
Mark G: Retracing FOMC reaction within a week is still an option?
—————– (02/02/2019 09:52) —————–
Bill G: What’s the .618 price above the triangle?
—————– (02/02/2019 09:53) —————–
David B: WDC,AMD
David B: GDX,GLD
ljr: GOOGL (earnings mon after close)
ljr: EA, SWKS, SFLY, DATA (earnings tues after close)
ljr: FEYE, FTNT, IRBT, NEWR (earnings wed after close)
ljr: YUM, GRUB (earnings thurs before open)
—————– (02/02/2019 10:25) —————–
ljr: yum all time highs
—————– (02/02/2019 10:27) —————–
Mark G: thx much
ljr: many thanks!
David B: Thanks
Bill G: thx
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2711.50 | 2710.25 |
| …would target | 2719.25 | 2718.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2700.00 | 2698.75 |
| …would target | 2692.50 | 2691.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday’s open was preceded by the monthly Employment Situation report. Its reaction had surged 12 points back up to Thursday’s 2709.00 high. The volatility was deceptive, itself preceded by a relatively narrow overnight range. Even that was contained within Thursday afternoon’s range. So, trending beyond the range wasn’t likely, especially if not done early.
If we can’t have trending, then at least we want to know it’s unlikely. Still, we gave trending one opportunity, which the first hour tried by probing fresh highs up to 2716.00. The bias-up signal even triggered — late, but the 10:30 grace period contained fresh highs to confirm. Although that makes the 2719.50 bias-up target more reliable, the balance of the Friday instead returned back into the earlier range.
We knew with greater certainty that trending intraday wasn’t likely. Nevertheless, the morning’s reaction down was recovered enough at the bias environment exit for the unmet bias-up target to become “unfinished business.” And the second consecutive close above 2701.00 confirms the rally’s next higher objective at 2756.00 is in-play. None of which prevents an interim detour with room down to 2656.00-2666.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
PLEASE JOIN US AT 9:30 AM ET FOR THIS WEEKEND’S SATURDAY REVIEW.