Posts by Rod David
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Ineffectual pessimism, no more. The choppy, wide 2130.00-2139.00 range has extended higher. Probing yesterday’s high has neutralized the requirement to retest it. has probed the 2143.00 bias-up target by 3 ticks. Maintaining the open’s break above yesterday’s highs would be likely to trend higher this morning, with 2148.00 and higher eventually targeted. Not maintaining the probe above yesterday’s high could trigger the domino effect pointing down sharply.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Wide, wide range.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s open had gapped down 10 points to test its 2127.75 bias-down target. Fluctuating around it ultimately held to avoid renewing the bias-down. That base launched a surge to 2140.00 — and that was just the morning. Retracing the morning’s surge by 13 points touched 2127.25 and still had time for an attack on 2136.00. Overbought RSIs requiring an eventual retest were left outstanding at the high.
Overnight action’s new info…
Drifting lower choppily, and eventually aggressively, only attacked Wednesday afternoon’s low down to 2128.50. Firming into Europe’s opens then became extremely volatile, surging 8 points to 2139.00, dropping 9 points, and now attacking 2139.00 again.
If, then…
Is that pessimism? Overbought RSIs at yesterday’s 2140.00 high requires at least a retest, and now two surges have stopped short of touching it. The first surge’s complete retracement has been recovered almost entirely. From a contrarian perspective, hesitating to break higher and not exploiting reversal opportunities is potentially bullish. Eventually, probing fresh highs becomes almost obligatory. Not rejecting the probe would likely extend significantly higher to older unfinished business above at 2148.00 and potentially higher. Otherwise, not extending early fresh highs would remain vulnerable to triggering a domino effect that leads to probing under 2118.00 and lower.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2135.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2138.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2140.75 would be likely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2144.00 | 2138.00 |
| …would target | 2149.00 | 2143.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2135.75 | 2129.75 |
| …would target | 2128.50 | 2122.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, BIAS-UP SIGNAL TESTED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Wednesday’s last half-hour sat there stunned, ranging choppily around its 2132.50 bias-down signal and 2134.25 bias timing print. This was neither a reward nor a consequence to bouncing off of the 2127.25 afternoon low, which was no-bias trending. The only unfinished business is above at the morning’s 2140.00 high, and its test would likely extend significantly higher. Otherwise, probing under Wednesday afternoon’s low could trigger a domino effect that leads to probing under 2118.00 and lower.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Another toe in the water.
Positive territory being contemplated again.
Reacting down from 2140.00 fulfilled the minimum required pullback to this morning’s 2133.50 bias-down signal. For good measure, the 10:20 2129.00 print was also retraced, along with the morning’s 2127.75 bias-down target.
2127.75 is also this afternoon’s bias-down target. Probing under this afternoon’s 2132.50 bias-down signal during its no-bias environment required a recovery, too. And for good measure, its 2134.25 1:20 print was also retraced.
Overbought RSIs at the 2140.00 high require an eventual retest. There’s no requirement to retest it today. But the position-squaring window is now opening at 3:37, and testing 2134.25 should launch another upleg without delay if the high will be retested today.
Another downleg isn’t likely, not today. But back under 2131.50 would start to suggest that is the market’s intent.