Posts by Rod David
The First Trade… “Ineffectual” pessimism no more.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Thursday night’s slide had started sliding sharply into Friday’s expiration open. Its quick retest down to 2123.50 was reversed back up. Extending through the balance of the session retraced back to Thursday’s 2137.00 futures close, settling back at Thursday’s 2135.00 cash session close. Positive territory was avoided, in yet another session to be limited in some way by “ineffectual pessimism.” No unfinished business was left outstanding below.
Overnight action’s new info…
That’s a twist. Not Sunday night’s opening surge that attacked 2140.00. But its complete retracement, which avoided negative territory. Avoided negative territory, eked its way back up to 2140.00, and then surged to 2147.50 through Europe’s opens. “Unfinished business above” at 2145.50 was neutralized. The surge has been consolidating back down to 2143.50.
If, then…
Ineffectual pessimism, meet optimism. Is it effective optimism? Friday was the fourth consecutive session for its high to be labeled as pessimistic, somehow stopping short of resistance or not exploiting an opportunity to extend through it. Not yet reacting down intraday has qualified each instance of pessimism as ineffectual — not so much regardless of the next session’s reaction down, but because the next session’s reaction down either held support or recovered. Ineffectual pessimism doesn’t ensure resolving up, and that resolution may be only an obligatory break higher that soon reverses back down. Ineffectual pessimism is gone, as the overnight optimism suggests the pattern is ready to resolve. If post-open sponsorship doesn’t launch a bigger rally leg, then its reaction could retrace back down to recent lows.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2143.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2140.75 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2139.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2135.50 bias-up signal.
Sunday night’s Globex link
Sunday night’s open wasted no time resuming Friday’s intraday rally. That had hit its extreme during the final hour, coming from the open’s 2123.50 low up to 2136.75. Now a surge has tested and retested 2139.50. RSIs diverged negatively on the retest, so the first hour may not be all that telling…
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2141.50 | 2135.50 |
| …would target | 2146.75 | 2140.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2133.75 | 2127.75 |
| …would target | 2127.25 | 2121.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap & BIGGER Picture review (recording & summary)
SPECIAL NOTE: Do you know your password? Another layer of security is being implemented before Monday’s open or else Monday night. Either way, you’ll be notified at that time with instructions in case you encounter difficulty.
There being no Saturday Review this weekend, we expanded the post-market Wrap to review the Bigger picture.
Watch the post-market Wrap recording
here in its usual weekday format
or here in its usual Saturday format.
chaRTroom will re-open Sunday night for Globex and a NEW LINK will be sent then.
Pre-close View… Gap filled.
Yesterday’s close(s) being retested, and being resistance.
REMINDER: THERE IS NO SATURDAY REVIEW THIS WEEKEND. THE POST-CLOSE MARKET WRAP WILL BE EXTENDED TO REVIEW THE BIGGER PICTURE.
This afternoon’s no-bias was entered by dipping to 2129.25-2130.00 and then snapping back up. The rubber band stretch quickly extended to probe the noon hour’s 2133.50 high by 3 ticks. It was too late to trigger bias-up, so the 2133.75 bias-up signal held as resistance.
And held.
Until the bias environment began lapsing, and then the rally resumed. The gap back up to yesterday’s 2135.00 cash session close was filled, and now the 2137.00 futures close is being attacked to within 3 ticks.
Expiration sessions can trend relentlessly from open to close. I’m irritated at (myself for missing) this session being able to do that, when two of the usual elements weren’t present. I would still be cautious as those elements aren’t present, and now natural resistance of unchanged is being tested. If the rally were going to turn positive, then it should extend at a much steeper slope.