Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2132.00 | 2125.75 |
| …would target | 2137.75 | 2131.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2125.00 | 2119.00 |
| …would target | 2119.00 | 2112.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Monday’s session was too narrow to offer much information. But for being so narrow, it accomplished a lot. And some of what it accomplished was the creation of objectives that were left outstanding — i.e. “unfinished business,” both above and below.
A test of the morning’s 2132.25 bias-up signal was put into play, but only attacked to within 3 points. The afternoon’s 2116.00 bias-down target was put into play, and attacked to within 2 points.
Buyers didn’t gain traction, so rallying requires gapping up, above 2129.00-2130.00, and also above 2132.25 if touched during the open. Holding a test of 2132.25 could slingshot the market back down under Monday’s lows. And that would target a retest of Thursday’s 2107.75 low down to at least 2105.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Fresh lows Sunday night at 1.0992 fulfilled the decline’s next lower objective. While closing back above 1.1011 would suggest that a bottom will begin forming, at least an eventual third lower close is still required.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s gap down was recovered too quickly to qualify as enough pessimism to offset the “ineffective optimism” early last week. No upside action Monday helps to confirm, keeping the door open to attacking or probing fresh lows.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s extremely narrow ranging suggests the pattern still requires some more concerted selling effort as part of a bottoming pattern.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Sunday night’s fresh lows down to 162-19 were recovered back above last week’s prior lows and 163-27 to try launching a corrective rally. Resistance at 164-08 must be recovered to put into play a test of 166-19.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Already having two consecutive lower closes under the rally’s 50.80 pullback limit, a rests of the rally’s 51.50 target would be likely to hold. It wasn’t tested before Monday slid a little deeper, so that now closing above 50.80 would put into play 54.60.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s dip did not hold the 2.26 pullback limit which had held Friday. Now signaling the rally’s resumption requires closing above 2.29. And the delay should be minimal to avoid a deeper corrective dip.
Mid-day Update… Resolving down and down.
Bounces still failing.
A choppy morning held multiple tests of the 2123.25 bias-down signal. One of the tests was timed appropriately to trigger no-bias, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2132.25 bias-up signal. Despite diving back down to 2123.25 as the bias environment began lapsing, the bias-down signal held again. Now 2132.25 becomes “unfinished business above.”
That will have to wait. Chipping away at 2122.50 through the noon hour kept open the door to attacking overnight lows. Now late bias-down is triggering under 2121.25.
Not yet recovering this afternoon could extend down and resume last week’s declines. Either fulfill this afternoon’s 2116.00 bias-down target and then rally sharply, or else leave it outstanding by already recovering the 2125.00 area. Otherwise, trading deeper would be more durable, next targeting 2105.00 and 2095.00.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Oct 18, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Any reaction to the pre-open high-profile econ report would likely be duplicated by subsequent reports. Otherwise, influence on price action is still likely from quarterly earnings announcements.
*Consumer Price Index
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Housing Market Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Treasury International Capital
4:00 PM ET