Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2134.25 | 2127.75 |
| …would target | 2139.25 | 2133.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2127.50 | 2121.25 |
| …would target | 2122.50 | 2116.00 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Stop and start selling still stopping and starting.
Late attempt to drop is recovered, for awhile.
Bouncing out of the overnight range to greet the open unchanged had required sellers to be immediately obvious. That is, the optimal sell-off would begin post-open without delay. The alternative couldn’t prevent an attempt, but it wouldn’t be very credible.
In fact, the open surged 3 points to touch 2130.00. And then it quickly reversed more than twice that to test this morning’s 2123.25 bias-down signal down to 2120.75. It held, eventually triggering late no-bias, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2132.25 bias-up signal.
The delayed influence cuts both ways. Not preventing the open’s surge before reversing down had made us cautious toward the reversal. Similarly, not maintaining the open’s surge is undermining buyers. Bouncing to within 1 point of the open’s high has reacted down more than 6 points to retest the 2123.25 bias-down signal.Quickly recovering 2123.25 back above 2124.50 could avoid delaying the bias-up signal’s test, which would be confirmed back above 2126.25. Otherwise, more selling pressure would still likely be limited to attacking overnight lows.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The overnight drop had entered a wide, choppy range largely contained by this morning’s 2118.00-2123.25 bias-down parameters. Bouncing through its upper-end has extended to retest Friday’s 2127.00 cash session close. RSIs are diverging negatively, but any bearish resolution must become obvious during the opening 15 minutes of volatility to have influence intraday. And now having bounced pre-open, resuming the decline should be obvious quickly. So, any delay in rejecting positive territory would tend to be bullish.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Start and stop selling.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Friday’s gap up extended to within 3 ticks of its 2144.00 renewed bias-up target. Reversing down through the noon hour to 2126.50 only barely filled the gap back down to Thursday’s close, never really turning negative. Retracing 61.8% of that drop attacked 2135.00 before retracing back down to the noon hour’s low. No traction was gained, no overbought or oversold RSIs were left outstanding, and Wednesday’s prior high contained the open’s probe above it.
Overnight action’s new info…
Quickly breaking lower Sunday night attacked 2118.00, which is this morning’s bias-down target. A bounce tested what is this morning’s 2123.25 bias-down signal as resistance before reversing to fresh lows testing 2117.00. That was all done by midnight, ranging choppily between the two since then — and now probing the range’s upper-end to at least 2125.50.
If, then…
Trending this morning should begin by gapping open beyond Friday’s range, and this morning’s open is indicated to gap down. The indication hasn’t much changed in quite awhile, so extending into a downleg might not be obvious immediately. A post-open bounce back up into Friday’s “higher prior lows” around 2128.00 would likely avoid triggering bias-down, while remaining vulnerable to drifting back down into the overnight range, and then to fresh lows through the afternoon. But that would require not touching the 2123.25 bias-down signal at all post-open, which would target positive territory, and which would not likely produce a downleg today. So, just touching the bias-down signal post-open should be very bearish very quickly, if bearish at all.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2122.00 would be likely to trigger the 2123.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2127.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
Sunday night’s Globex link
The weekend wasn’t particularly eventful. That’s not necessarily calming to that market, which has been trading choppily lower without a particular event to discount its woes. You can monitor its mood when the overnight Globex session opens at the top of the hour…