Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2144.00 | 2137.75 |
| …would target | 2149.50 | 2143.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2134.75 | 2128.75 |
| …would target | 2128.75 | 2122.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Trendless.
No-bias follows tests of both bias signals.
The 2135.00 bias-up signal wasn’t touched within 3 minutes of the 10:15 bias timing window. But it was touched before then. So, an offsetting test of the 2126.50 bias-down signal is in-play. Or, would be in-play, if not tested already during the open. For the same reason, holding the bias-down signal’s test doesn’t put into play an offsetting test of the bias-up signal, because it has been tested already.
Exceeding either signal through 10:30 would have been too late to trigger or to invoke the grace period. But it would have invalidated whatever was triggered at 10:15.
In fact, 2135.00 was probed by 2 points. But still overlapping it at 10:30 prevented invalidating the no-bias. That doesn’t preclude extending higher to test the 2140.75 bias-up target anyway, especially during today’s low-volume environment. But it’s still the least likely resolution. And back under 2132.25 would reverse momentum down.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The reaction down from touching the 2140.75 bias-up target had bounced off of testing 2130.00-2131.00. Its failure resolved in fresh lows coming within 3 ticks of this morning’s 2126.50 bias-down signal. Bouncing again is now probing back above 2130.00-2131.00.
Being yesterday’s cash session close, and today’s volume being slower for the Yom Kippur holiday, trending away from 2130.00-2131.00 will be difficult. More difficult if opening there. Trending attempts are no less likely, but less reliable for extending.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Yesterday’s lingering effects.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s gap down to 2153.00 quickly slid through “lower prior highs,” a gap, and prior lows. That much selling pressure in one fell swoop is unusual enough. More unusual is not to react and retrace, at least correcting the price drop. Instead, the slide extended down sharply and relentlessly through the afternoon’s 2125.25 bias-down target to 2121.75. Bouncing into the cash session close recovered back up to 2131.00, which was the afternoon’s bias-down signal. The futures close extended to within 1 point of the late bounce’s 2136.00 objective. Oversold RSIs were left outstanding at the low.
Overnight action’s new info…
The late bounce eventually extended to touch 2140.75, which is this morning’s bias-up target. Reacting down into and out of Europe’s opens tested 2130.00. Bouncing from there is now testing 2134.00.
If, then…
Selling that lacks any singular, generally accepted cause is difficult to bottom. Tuesday’s eventual bounce was accompanied by news of Russia’s comminique to its diplomats. Was that behind the selling, or was the market just so willing to accept it? Regardless, it doesn’t make the decline bullish. And it doesn’t allow an immediate recovery without retesting yesterday’s low — the most bullish scenario must probe lower intraday before recovering. The most bearish setup would try recovering prematurely. Trending at all today, let alone extending down further, could be hampered by low volume due to the Yom Kippur holiday, when many Jewish participants are away from the market.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2136.00 would be likely to trigger the 2135.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2131.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2141.25 | 2135.00 |
| …would target | 2147.00 | 2140.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2132.75 | 2126.50 |
| …would target | 2126.50 | 2120.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, BOTH BIAS SIGNALS TESTED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.