Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2144.00 | 2138.00 |
| …would target | 2149.00 | 2143.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2134.75 | 2127.75 |
| …would target | 2127.00 | 2121.00 |
| Signal status BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
The last FOMC meeting’s minutes were released Wednesday afternoon. They suggested a rate hike was missed more narrowly than first suspected, and therefore closer than was thought. The low-volume, low volatility session didn’t have much of a knee-jerk reaction to the “bad” news, dipping 3-4 points to 2133.00. Having the event become history essentially triggered a relief rally up to 2139.50.
But there was nothing accumulative about the pattern. And volume was no greater. So the balance of the session drifted choppily back down to fresh lows attacking 2131.00. Remember that was Tuesday’s cash session close, and opening there Wednesday had already warned us that intraday trending would be unlikely.
A bullish scenario would have exploited the low-volume environment and neutralized Tuesday’s oversold RSIs on Wednesday, when it was difficult to trend. Instead, the attraction is left outstanding at 2121.75, likely to be retested Thursday, unless the open is already extending up from a gap up above Wednesday’s 2139.50 high.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down againWednesday is the first confirmation of a break during the recent multi-week distribution pattern. At least an eventual third lower close would be required to fulfill the setup, before any recovery effort can be credible.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Two days of ineffectual optimism weakened Wednesday, but still held well above Friday’s lows, with potential to a fresh low at 1236.00.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Two days of ineffectual optimism weren’t so ineffectual as to require fresh lows. But Wednesday’s dip was too shallow itself to qualify as fulfilling the downside consequence, which is necessary before any recovery attempt would be credible.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down and probing lower to 163-19 Wednesday needs to avoid closing under 163-27 would would signal a much deeper decline underway.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The rally above its 51.50 target has yet to resume, while the 50.80 pullback limit is probed even more deeply Wednesday down to 49.90. Two lower closes would indicate that a top is forming
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s dip actually touched the 3.20 pullback limit which Tuesday’s low had only attacked. Probing any lower intraday Thursday should be recovered to close higher, which the morning’s EIA report should trigger..
Mid-day Update… Hanging in there.
Low-volume session ranging narrowly.
Volume is already depressed from lower participation today due to the Yom Kippur holiday. Volatility has also been inhibited ahead of this afternoon’s impending FOMC Minutes release. The morning’s range was defined by its 2126.50-2135.00 bias signals. And the noon hour’s high came within 1 tick of this afternoon’s 2137.75 bias-up signal.
Now the FOMC Minutes are released. Its knee-jerk reaction up pierced 2137.75 by 2 ticks before reacting down sharply to 2133.00. Any lower would signal the balance of the afternoon was likely to trending down.
There’s otherwise no requirement to rally in place of declining. The balance of the session is equally vulnerable to only ranging sideways into the close.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Oct 13, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Both of EIAs weekly reports are released this week on Thursday. Otherwise, the noon hour’s Fed speaker and 30-year auction are likeliest to influence price action. Then price action might become muted for the afternoon, ahead of Friday morning’s bank stocks earnings.
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Import and Export Prices
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
11:00 AM ET
*Patrick Harker Speaks
12:15 PM ET
*30-Yr Bond Auction
1:00 PM ET
Treasury Budget
2:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET