Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Oct 14, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s Fed speakers are at the Boston Fed’s 60th Economic Conference, titled “The Elusive ‘Great’ Recovery: Causes and Implications for the Future Business Cycle.” Remember when OJ hunted for Nicole’s killers on golf courses across California? Yah, it’s like that.
*PPI-FD
8:30 AM ET
Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET
*Eric Rosengren Speaks
8:30 AM ET
Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
*Janet Yellen Speaks
12:30 PM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2128.75 | 2122.00 |
| …would target | 2134.50 | 2127.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2119.50 | 2112.75 |
| …would target | 2112.25 | 2105.50 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Lower lows.
Post-open probe under overnight lows.
Opening within the choppy pre-open range at 2118.00 did not both trying to reject the overnight slide. Neither did the open rush to resume the slide. And those were the two templates that could have formed a near-term bottom.
Price action instead gradually returned to the pre-open range’s 2115.00 lower-end, and then sharply through it to test 2108.00.. Slightly higher oversold RSIs there led to a bounce testing 2117.00. Its reaction down is probing back under the overnight range’s 2115.00 lower-end.
Probing under 2112.00 and quickly recovering back above 2115.00 would have launched a morning rally. Probing under 2112.00 and recovering back above 2121.00 into the noon hour could produce an afternoon bounce.
Otherwise, Tuesday’s slide has resumed, and the overnight slide will resume, next targeting 2105.00 and 2095.00.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The choppy 2115.00-2121.00 ranging is persisting into the open. Holding a post-open test of 2112.00 would allow a morning rally. Opening at or above Tuesday’s 2121.75 low and quickly extending to 2131.00 would establish a near-term bottom, too. Any other price action would likely resolve down, be it a shallow post-open bounce or a dip that doesn’t quickly recover.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Aaaannd, we’re back.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Opening flat Wednesday with Tuesday’s cash session close had immediately that intraday trending would be unlikely. Not surprising, since volume was depressed from limited participation for the Jewish holiday. So, after the open quickly dipped several points to attack 2126.00, the balance of the morning recovered into positive territory at 2137.00. Trending higher into and out of the afternoon’s FOMC Minutes touched 2139.50, but there was nothing accumulative about the pattern. The balance of the session trended back down to unchanged under 2132.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Wednesday’s late-afternoon dip extended through unchanged attack the morning’s low. Bouncing back to 2131.00 soon failed in reaction to bad economic news from China. Sliding more sharply down to 2115.00 has since ranged choppily sideways. Fresh lows probed 2113.50 after Europe’s opens, reacting up to 2122.50, still in the choppy range.
If, then…
A bullish scenario Wednesday would have exploited the low-volume environment and neutralized Tuesday’s oversold RSIs left outstanding from its 2121.75 low. But trending is likelier today than it was yesterday, so testing 2121.75 overnight probed it by another 7-9 points. We already know there’s no bullish reason to have tested 2121.75, so recovering from its retest depends on isolating it by already extending up from it through the open. Otherwise, today could duplicate Tuesday’s gap down and steep, deep follow-through.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2125.25 would be likely to trigger the 2127.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2118.75 would be likely also to exceed the 2121.00 bias-down target through 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal.