Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2143.00 | 2136.25 |
| …would target | 2149.00 | 2142.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2137.50 | 2131.00 |
| …would target | 2132.00 | 2125.25 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Nope.
Backing-and-filling hardly defines this morning’s action.
Not indicating a gap up this morning had left only one path up, and it had to be exploited immediately at the open. But for the first minute blipping-up to attack the 2154.25 bias-down signal, there was no immediate buying pressure.
Not much delayed buying pressure, either.
So, the direction has been down. That’s not surprising, since the open didn’t meet its bullish parameters. But it’s surprising anyway. Very surprising. The downside action was likely to be only backing-and-filling. A few air pockets uncovered, but quickly recovered.
This morning has been more like dropping a rock from the top of a cliff. The 2149.75 bias-down target and the 2143.50 renewed bias-down target were exceeded through 10:15 as the bias timing window was triggering. Now the bias environment is within view of lapsing, and 2133.25 has been touched.
RSIs are oversold at the low, suggesting that a bounce from here would fail, too. There is no requirement to recover, anyway. And there’s no bullish reason to be revisiting recent lows — let alone to be probing under them.
Perhaps most bearish of all is that there is no specific reason for the slide. So, there is no scapegoat to value and to assume has been discounted. That’s the “uncertainty” we always hear how much the market hates.
Meanwhile, the bias-down environment is ending. Its oversold RSIs won’t allow a durable recovery. And the series of lower lows and lower highs is a downtrend, which doesn’t suddenly reverse up substantially. Any bounces remain likely to be only temporary. And not recovering out of the noon hour could instead see the afternoon double this morning’s drop.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The overnight dip to 2151.75 had bounced to 2156.50 resistance. That bounce has now been retraced entirely to pierce fresh lows, assuring no gap up. Rallying soon after the open may have limited upside this morning, but it may also be the only way to avoid dipping deeper this morning — even if that dipping were not aggressive.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Drifting isn’t trending.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Sunday night’s rally into Monday’s gap up at 2158.00 wasn’t done. The open extended to 2163.50. Then it was done. Depressed holiday volume limited new sponsorship for anything more than hovering at the highs. That ended with the renewed bias-up environment, and the balance of the session drifted down to its 2156.50 objective. Surging into the futures close came too late to reverse momentum up. No unfinished business was left outstanding.
Overnight action’s new info…
Firming a couple of more points soon attacked 2161.00. Like Monday’s intraday action, the balance of the night has resumed drifting downward. Hovering around the support of this morning’s 2154.25 bias-down signal was probed momentarily to attack 2152.00, but 2154.25 has attracted price back up to it.
If, then…
Spending the entire session in positive territory yesterday didn’t gain traction for its effort, so resuming the rally to fresh highs this morning depended on gapping up above yesterday’s highs. And that’s not likely without already probing higher overnight. The alternative isn’t necessarily bearish — Sunday night’s rally hasn’t been retraced even after extending yesterday afternoon’s drift overnight, expending a lot of selling pressure without gaining traction for its effort. So, not quickly rejecting the overnight dip would more likely only back-and-fill a little deeper this morning, as opposed to launching another downleg. Quickly rejecting the overnight dip could at least spend the morning rallying back to yesterday’s highs, just not through them.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2157.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2154.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2151.25 would be likely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2168.25 | 2162.25 |
| …would target | 2174.00 | 2168.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2160.25 | 2154.25 |
| …would target | 2155.75 | 2149.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.