Posts by Rod David
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2158.00 | 2151.25 |
| …would target | 2162.75 | 2156.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2149.75 | 2143.50 |
| …would target | 2145.00 | 2138.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday’s opening surge stopped short of testing the pre-open reaction to payrolls, which had touched 2161.50. It even stopped short of filling the gap back to last Friday’s 2160.00 area close. The restrained optimism didn’t prevent a steep intraday dip. But it makes me suspect whether the dip can extend.
Already, the reaction’s second downleg has been retraced. That was the 10-point drop which appeared suddenly when the morning bias environment began lapsing. The afternoon retraced it. But it wasn’t actually reversed — and it could have been.
All of which is interesting for anticipating intraday action. The context is somewhat bullish from a contrarian perspective, as rally efforts are stopping short of their failures being predictive. That doesn’t mean continuing to chip away at support won’t eventually break lower, only that recoveries remain likely for now.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
I’ll send login instructions overnight for the weekend’s Saturday Review.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Spiking down to fresh lows Friday and then snapping back up only tested what had been “higher prior lows” of the consolidation that previously had launched three separate breaks lower. Its third break finally had been maintained through a close on Thursday, and although not confirmed by a lower second consecutive lower close, the break was not rejected and remains intact.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Bouncing only to 1166.00 resistance was reversed sharply back down to fresh lows, essentially testing the upper-end of the next lower objective’s 1237.00-1243.00 range. Closing back above Thursday’s 1252.50 lows isn’t enough to prevent follow-through on Monday.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Initially bouncing Friday morning proved short-lived, although the eventual reaction down held above prior lows. The potential to 17.09 that was attacked to within a nickel Thursday was attacked to within 2 cents Friday. Back above 17.80 would put the potential to the upside in a recovery
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Fulfilling all downside attractions without actually closing above the 165-30 relevant level still didn’t greet Friday’s Employment Situation report from a position of strength. The result was to probe back under prior lows down to 164-08. And not closing above 165-30 suggests that Monday will probe fresh lows, too.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s fresh high testing 50.75 was already softening when it then reacted down to the weekly Rig Count. The dip to 49/40 didn’t much threaten the 49.00 pullback limit, still targeting 51.50.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The week’s restrained optimism finally became a little unleashed by gapping up Friday and probing fresh recovery highs at 3.22. 3.12-3.15 3.28.
Mid-day Update… Down, but not necessarily out.
Noon hour hovering at morning lows.
The open’s drop from 2157.50 down to 2146.25 had consolidated throughout the bias environment. Its bounces became shallower, and the consolidation broke lower when the bias environment began lapsing at 11:30.
Much lower. A 10-point plunge was already being retraced into the noon hour.
The plunge’s retracement measured 61.8% before returning to attack the plunge’s low. Ranging through the noon hour has repeatedly threatened the lows. The only attempt to break lower was barely 3 minutes old before surging back up to the afternoon’s 2142.50 bias-up signal.
2142.50 was touched at 1:20 to invoke the grace period. Its recovery through 1:30 would trigger late bias-up. Also recovering 2143.50 by 1:30 (being tested now) would be helpful confirmation. Otherwise, a late no-bias environment could still test its 2137.00 bias-down signal.