Posts by Rod David
Post-open Review… Anchored.
Gap up above prior highs maintained through open.
Gapping up to 2158.00 was at or above each of last week’s intraday highs. Post-open action hardly looked back while extending to 2163.50. That’s even above Friday’s pre-open reaction to the Employment Situation report.
Maintaining a gap up above prior highs is an anchor. It’s not assured of extending higher this morning but often does. Reacting down would be very likely to recover entirely.
Potential for reacting down comes from having extended so far already. Not arbitrarily, but holding a test of the 2162.25 renewed bias-up signal. Exceeding it through 10:15 would have doubly-renewed the bias-up, and still have been vulnerable to a pullback.
Overbought RSIs at the high require its retest, even after a 2-point dip was recovered to within 1 tick. Regardless, back under 2160.75 would suggest a deeper pullback underway this morning. Exiting the bias environment at 11:30 under the 2156.50 bias-up target is the minimum requirement to suggest the day’s momentum is reversing down.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The overnight rally has extended to a fresh high at 2159.00. Maintaining the sentiment post-open is not at all assured. In fact, the week-long pattern has been to reject it, eventually if not immediately. This being the week’s first session, there is a greater potential for breaking with that pattern, but no assurance.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Opening volley.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Friday’s opening surge stopped short of testing the pre-open reaction to payrolls, which had touched 2161.50. It even stopped short of filling the gap back to last Friday’s 2160.00 area close. The restrained optimism may be potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective, but not immediately. Potential bullishness didn’t prevent a steep morning dip down to 2146.00, or an afternoon dip down to 2138.00. But at least the second dip was retraced into Friday’s close. More restrained optimism, perhaps, but oversold RSIs were left outstanding at the low.
Overnight action’s new info…
Friday’s recovering up to 2151.25 had reacted down into the close at 2145.50. Sunday night’s open gapped up to test 2153.00. Choppy sideways ranging persisted through Europe’s opens, but eventually started trending to fresh highs at 2157.50.
If, then…
Last week’s intraday — mostly early — rally efforts stopped short of prior highs. If that is ultimately bullish from a contrarian perspective, then its ultimate resolution should begin aggressively. Like this morning’s open gapping up above Friday’s highs, as is currently indicated. Testing last week’s highs but then reversing down through the open would suggest their test had held. And the range’s lower-end would be a likely objective of the failure, with equal opportunity to break.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2157.50 would be likely to exceed the 2156.50 bias-up target at 10:15, which would renew the bias-up signal next targeting 2162.25. Exiting the open above 2153.00 at 9:45 would be likely at least to trigger the 2151.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2148.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Tonight’s link to monitor Globex
Well, that was certainly an interesting weekend. That is, if you’re into car wrecks, horror flicks, and April Fool’s jokes gone awry. All ingredients that have been combined to create this year’s U.S. election campaigns. And it’s not over — tonight’s “town hall debate” is another round in the tug o’war. A suddenly surging Peso seems to be influenced by the fireworks, and soon we’ll see whether S&Ps are, too. The overnight Globex session opens at the top of the hour…
Saturday Review’s recording (for 10/8/16) …
If there were such a thing as “inside week,”. then last week would have qualified. It developed exclusively within the prior week’s range. So, it has created some new support and resistance that has its own influence and predictive value. We discus that during this week’s Saturday Review, and the bigger picture, along with instant chart analysis of the stocks listed below.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
QCOM, AAPL, CBI, VEEV, GDXJ, EGDFF
10/08/2016 09:35:42 MK: this is the 4th double inside week in the past 20 years
10/08/2016 09:35:58 MK: 2 happened in 2000 near the top
10/08/2016 09:36:08 MK: 1 in 2008 near the top
10/08/2016 09:36:11 MK: and now
10/08/2016 09:37:07 MK: the previous occruances had one last higher high that sealed the top
10/08/2016 09:37:31 MK: occurrences
10/08/2016 09:54:57 MK: can you also do TFZ6?
10/08/2016 09:55:05 MK: RUT has outperformed recently i think
10/08/2016 09:57:59 MK: ok
10/08/2016 09:58:00 MK: thanks
10/08/2016 09:58:07 MK: didn’t realize the chart didn’t look that great
10/08/2016 09:59:08 MK: yeah
10/08/2016 10:01:41 MK: QCOM
10/08/2016 10:01:44 MK: AAPL
10/08/2016 10:03:14 MK: CBI
10/08/2016 10:10:48 MK: VEEV
10/08/2016 10:11:01 MK: At some point i’d like to buy CBI
10/08/2016 10:14:31 MK: This is a short idea
10/08/2016 10:17:17 MK: yes
10/08/2016 10:17:30 MK: EGDFF
10/08/2016 10:17:33 MK: if you don’t mind
10/08/2016 10:18:53 MK: RE: GOLD i read somewhere that the 3x levered stoks had something to do with the “severity”
10/08/2016 10:18:59 MK: of this gold move
10/08/2016 10:19:04 MK: tail wagging the dog so to speak
10/08/2016 10:19:52 MK: just talking about gold
10/08/2016 10:19:54 MK: in general
10/08/2016 10:22:09 MK: have a good one
10/08/2016 10:22:52 Mark Glezer: thx!