Posts by Rod David
Post-open Review… Rubber band stretch?
Late sellers take a shot.
Delaying a sell-off post-open would not preclude there being a sell-off. A lesser chance for a sell-off, but not full protection. And the longer that a sell-off were delayed, the likelier it would be recovered entirely, regardless of how shallow or deep.
Initial strength did delay a sell-off. Opening at the 2156.50 bias-up signal and ranging around it created a sort of anchor. Before being able to extend higher, something sent price plunging 6 points under an inflection point at 2154.25. That soon extended to touch 2147.75.
Focus shifted quickly from testing the bias-up signal to testing the 2148.75 bias-down signal. It was overlapped within 3 minutes of the 10:15 bias timing window to invoke the grace period. Bouncing to 2151.00 and higher at 10:30 barely triggered a late no-bias.
This being a no-bias environment, albeit late, and despite already having tested the 2156.50 bias-up signal, an offsetting test of it was put into play. It was quickly tested. Meanwhile, this being a no-bias environment, the bias-up signal should define the range’s upper-end if tested. Which it is, so far.
We come within view of the bias environment lapsing within a half-hour. Breaking higher then would be credible for extending. The only “unfinished business below” would be oversold RSIs at the low, but being created by a knee-jerk reaction to news or to rumors does undermine their attraction.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The 2159.75 overnight high’s reaction down has extended pre-open to a fresh low at 2152.25. That was brief, and price has been ranging flat-to-higher around yesterday’s 2153.50 close. Still, the most recent action is pessimistic, keeping alive the potential for bullish behavior post-open. Extending back down post-open should be obvious almost immediately, as almost any delay becomes increasingly bullish.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Optimism being restrained.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Monday’s backing-and filling had begun abruptly by gapping down to several points to 2155.00. Extending further down tested relevant support back to Thursday’s ~2147.50 close. The Rosh Hashanah holiday limited the sponsorship available for trending, so support held. Twice. Pessimism was the excuse for two timing windows reacting up shallowly through the close to attack 2156.00 — “ineffectual pessimism.” No unfinished business was left outstanding, and a hold-long setup was not compelling enough.
Overnight action’s new info…
Barely probing higher and higher highs awaited Europe’s opens, which blipped down momentarily to 2153.00. As if that had cleared the air, price soon rallied further to attack 2160.00. Stopping pessimistically short of Friday’s cash session close has reacted down to attack 2153.00.
If, then…
Despite reacting down so deeply from the overnight fresh recovery high, Tuesday’s session remains vulnerable to resuming the recovery, and much more aggressively than was Monday afternoon’s firming. With participation somewhat normalized, probing above Friday’s 2168.00 high would not be an unreasonable reward for unleashing the pent-up buying pressure. All of which relies on post-open action being higher, abruptly and with limited reaction down, if not also by gapping up. Otherwise, probing negative territory — at all, let alone more than momentarily — could at least probe well under Monday’s low, regardless of its ultimate resolution.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2153.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2156.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2159.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2163.75 | 2156.50 |
| …would target | 2169.00 | 2162.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2156.75 | 2149.75 |
| …would target | 2151.50 | 2144.25 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL, THEN BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Monday’s backing-and filling started abruptly by gapping down. But its test of relevant support back to Thursday’s close held. And despite two more timing windows having elapsed since then, price only firmed from the test instead of bouncing back up. That’s “ineffectual pessimism.”
The pessimism won’t be so ineffectual. Monday’s lows did chip away at support, so breaking under them is likelier if retested. And having bounced into Monday’s close, gapping down Tuesday under Monday afternoon’s lows could form a session-decline.
Otherwise, Tuesday’s session is vulnerable to a delayed resumption of Monday afternoon’s firming, replete with pent-up buying pressure pushing price higher. And with participation somewhat normalized, trending can at least be attempted.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.