Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2173.00 | 2166.00 |
| …would target | 2179.75 | 2173.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2161.75 | 2155.00 |
| …would target | 2156.75 | 2149.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday’s late dive originated too late to be predictive. It was also too shallow within 3 minutes of the cash session close to be predictive. It did extend to levels that would have been relevant if printed earlier in the session. Sunday night or Monday might still do the same and be entirely valid. But the recovery otherwise remains capable of fulfilling that last bit of unfinished business above before completing its topping pattern. We’ll discuss that and more at the Saturday Review.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
The link to this weekend’s Saturday Review will be sent overnight.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s confirmed break under the 1.1265 sell signal had made Thursday’s bounce up to 1.1285 likely to fail. And it did, retracing intraday and trending down sharply overnight to test 1.1190. But Friday’s big gap down has reversed right back up to Thursday’s high at 1.1290. Still testing 1.1265, the pattern remains defensive, if not impatient.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up and surging Friday attacked the upper-end of the 1329.00-1332.00 bounce limit. The limit held, and the session reversed back down sharply to fresh lows at 1316.00. More than a bounce limit, the pattern now has little if any tolerance for any more bouncing before resuming its decline.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s open gapped up and extended sharply higher to test its 19.75 sell signal, probing above its 19.35 bounce limit. They held their test, reversing price down to fill the gap back to Thursday’s 19.18 close.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Recovering into Friday’s open attacked the rally’s 170-02 to within 1 tick. But that was reversed to probe back under Thursday’s 168-09 low down to 167-30. Both dips tested the 168-22 pullback limit, whose recovery through Friday’s close would suggest the rally is ready to extend higher.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))0
An overnight dip attacking 47.00 held the 47.45 pullback limit Friday and recovered to attack Thursday’s ~48.30 high, keeping alive the 49.00 target.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Dipping even deeper ahead of Friday’s open wasn’t rejected intraday as it tested 2.89. This extended stage of the pullback must rally aggressively to avoid much deeper pullback being underway. So, every tick that isn’t rallying aggressively is essentially signaling that momentum has reversed down.
Mid-day Update… Firming up.
Giving the upside benefit of little doubt.
The bias environment exit is probing above its 2163.75 bias-up signal. Only by a couple of ticks, and probing above it began only a couple of minutes prior to coming within 10-15 minutes of the bias environment lapsing. So, I’m willing to dismiss that from being “no-bias trending.” Especially since this morning’s behavior suggests the rally will extend substantially today.
Meanwhile, no-bias Friday afternoons don’t often suddenly resume a morning trend. This is contrary to the morning’s suggestion of extending the rally. Back under 2162.00 would also be contrary — so contrary as to target 2155.50 and lower.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Oct 3, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The next week begins with the econ calendar slightly busier than a usual Monday. More so, two of them are high-profile, two are reliably influential to price action, and two are released simultaneously. While this suggests the week is assured to begin with volatility, keep in mind that the Jewish holiday Rosh Hashanah reduces volume as many market participants are instead attending worship services.
Gallup US Consumer Spending Measure
8:30 AM ET
*PMI Manufacturing Index
9:45 AM ET
*ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET