Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2170.75 | 2163.75 |
| …would target | 2176.50 | 2169.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2163.25 | 2156.25 |
| …would target | 2157.50 | 2150.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review…Baby steps.
Sellers kinda sorta marginalized.
A morning rally would begin immediately and aggressively, essentially exploiting yesterday afternoon’s short-squeeze setup without further delay. That was the likeliest character for extending higher this morning. And the open did surge 5 points.
But it didn’t follow-through. Which wasn’t necessarily bearish — resuming yesterday’s decline was required to be as abrupt as a valid rally effort. Dipping to 2150.50 through several econ reports wasn’t considered to be more than backing-and-filling.
Bias-up didn’t trigger, but neither did no-bias. The 2155.50 bias-up signal was overlapped at 10:15 to invoke the grace period. Overlapping it at 10:30 avoided triggering a bias. This is a noN-bias environment. The bias-up signal need not define the range’s upper-end, and its 2162.00 bias-up target didn’t require being met.
None of which has prevented extending higher anyway. Fresh post-open highs are probing almost 2 points above the bias-up target to 2164.50, retracing back to and through the origin of yesterday’s plunge. Sellers are very likely marginalized for the day. And despite its slow start (following a fast start), any rally today is likely to be substantial.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Yesterday’s noon hour plunge is losing more credibility as the overnight recovery persists into the open. Not resuming the decline at the open could allow end o’quarter portfolio window dressing to influence price action, possibly more so than it was impacted by yesterday’s price action. In other words, recover all of the plunge, and then some. The weekend’s impending illiquidity already influences Friday morning aggression, which should be extreme if a recovery is underway. Add to it what is constructively a three-day holiday weekend since Monday is Rosh Hashanah, and many market participants are at services.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… No go.
0-=-092yujkl]\Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Thursday’s noon hour plunge to 2140.75 had tried extending lower during the afternoon bias environment. But the fresh session extreme at 2137.25 was rejected by the bias environment exiting back above its 2149.25 relative high up to 2153.50. Although this short-squeeze setup often produces a last-hour surge, this time it didn’t. The decline didn’t resume, as dipping back down to 2153.00 — a 61.8% retracement back down to the low — ranged choppily through the final hour. Oversold RSIs were left outstanding at the low.
Overnight action’s new info…
Gradually gravitating back down toward yesterday’s lows was then pushed to fresh lows at 2135.75 as Europe’s opens had their first chance to sympathize with yesterday’s noon hour plunge. Gradually working back up into the overnight range has extended back to unchanged, briefly probing higher to 2149.50.
If, then…
Retesting yesterday afternoon’s oversold RSIs overnight suffices to neutralize their attraction. Now greeting Friday’s open in positive territory can still fulfill yesterday afternoon’s short-squeeze setup, after all. Almost no post-open probe back under yesterday’s low can be tolerated if the morning intends to rally. Also, this being a Friday, the morning’s bias tends to persist through the noon hour. Persistent, and aggressive in whichever direction, especially greeting the week’s last session with a big drop back to relevant support that has already been productive once.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2138.00 would be likely to trigger the 2140.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2143.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2162.75 | 2155.50 |
| …would target | 2167.00 | 2162.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2147.50 | 2140.50 |
| …would target | 2141.00 | 2133.75 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.