Posts by Rod David
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
A short-squeeze setup wasn’t exploited. It had formed by probing a fresh session extreme during the bias environment and then exiting that environment beyond the prior extreme. But the bounce from 2137.25 up to 2153.75 was retraced back down by 61.8% to 2143.00. And the last hour was spent ranging choppily sideways.
Remember that Monday’s drop was a test of “lower prior highs” down to 2143.50. So, holding it through Thursday’s close does keep alive potential for Thursday’s drop to have been only temporary. But closing above 2149.00 instead of at or below it would have helped to confirm.
Meanwhile, oversold RSIs at Thursday’s low require an eventual retest. Overnight would suffice, and then greeting Friday’s open in positive territory could fulfill the short-squeeze setup, after all. Being a Friday, the morning’s bias tends to persist through the noon hour. And it’s being greeted with a big drop back to relevant support that has already been productive once. So, whichever direction, the session is likely to trend aggressively for awhile.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Mid-day Update… Overkill.
Back-and-fill becomes bottomless pit.
Not gapping up this morning above yesterday’s highs already had foreclosed upon resuming the rally, before late-afternoon at the earliest. More likely was a morning to be spent backing-and-filling, probably to 2155.50, 
possibly to 2152.00, and with room down to 2149.00 before something much bigger might be considered underway.
Something much bigger is underway. The question is whether it’s already done.
The noon hour reacted up from 2155.50 to 2163.00. The decline’s resumption barely acknowledged the 2152.50 bias-down signal, and renewed it under the 2147.00 bias-down target at 1:20. Now the 2138.00-2139.00 renewed bias-down target has been met. And it defines the low of a bounce to 2143.50.
Back under 2139.00 would target at least a retest of the 2137.25 low, where RSIs were oversold. And that would risk resuming the decline. Otherwise, ignoring the oversold RSIs and recovering 2145.25 (being tested now) could also exit the bias environment above its last relative high at 2149.00 — which would form a short-squeeze setup targeting 2160.50.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s bounce back above the 1.1265 sell signal after two consecutive closes under it suggests the bounce will fail. In fact, testing Monday’s “higher prior lows” up to 1.1288.did reverse back under the signal.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Dipping deeper overnight to attack 1318.50 into Thursday’s open was retraced into positive territory above 1326.00. Nevertheless, the decline’s momentum remains intact under 1329.00.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Overnight weakness didn’t extend down and Thursday morning bounced as the decline’s momentum remains intact under 19.35.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Having reacted down already Wednesday from testing the 170-02 objective, gapping down Thursday extended down slightly further to test the rally’s 168-22 pullback limit down to 168-09. Its reaction bounced back to within 4 ticks of 170-02, suggesting the recovery remains intact.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The rally extended sharply higher Thursday and attacked its 49.00 target up to 48.32. No other upside attractions are outstanding, so back under 47.45 would signal the rally was ending, and under 46.90 would signal momentum reversing down.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s weakness was contained within Wednesday’s range. Having greeted the day’s EIA.report not from an optimal position of strength, the reaction suggests that its pessimism is ineffectual. Any initial strength Friday would be credible for extending higher into the weekend.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Sep 30, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s post-open PMI is released privately to its institutional subscribers, several minutes prior to public release. Any price reaction to its private release tends to be duplicated when released publicly. And any reaction to it tends to be duplicated by subsequent reports, like Consumer Confidence, which is already high-profile and influential to price action anyway..
Janet Yellen Speaks
THU 5:10 PM ET
Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 AM ET
*Chicago PMI
9:45 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
*Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2172.00 | 2164.75 |
| …would target | 2176.75 | 2169.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2159.50 | 2152.50 |
| …would target | 2154.25 | 2147.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.