Posts by Rod David
Post-open Review… Dry cleaners morning.
Neither bias signal even touched.
The overnight reaction down had touched the 2157.50 bias-down signal. It wasn’t touched again, as bouncing into and out of the 2161.25 open extended up to 2165.75. Having touched neither bias signal, let alone exceeded either signal, this is a no-bias environment with no requirement to test the opposite signal or a target.
And with price fluctuating around unchanged, the market seems uninterested in even trying.
That said, while a fresh high isn’t recovered, exceeding 2166.25 would signal a failed rally effort underway, targeting 2169.25. Meanwhile, back under 2162.25 could retest the overnight low at the 2157.50 bias-down signal, while maintaining the no-bias environment.
The next opportunity for new parameters will be no sooner than coming within 10-15 minutes of the bias environment lapsing in one hour.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The overnight reaction down has extended pre-open to touch the 2157.50 bias-down signal. Another couple of points lower through the open would be likely also to trigger bias-down. Otherwise, holding its test could at least produce a bounce back up to the 2170.00 overnight high, which is also this morning’s 2167.00 bias-up signal. Actually trending up any higher through the morning would be unlikely without extending straight up through the open.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Holding up is not enough.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s 21-point rally from its 2144.00 low had recovered the morning pullback and also its gap up, then 61.8% of last Friday’s range at 2164.00. No unfinished business was left outstanding, below having fulfilled the morning’s downside objective at its low. The afternoon’s no-bias environment was essentially maintained, despite testing its bias-up signal and then breaking higher five minutes before that would normally be acceptable. But the late break was triggered by a headline — not by excessive optimism — and relevant levels the break recovered were maintained through the close. Still, trending did not gain traction.
Overnight action’s new info…
The rally’s momentum eventually resumed, carrying price slightly higher to 2167.00 before midnight. That happens to be this morning’s bias-up signal, which is calculable resistance. Narrow ranging at the high started drifting back down ahead of Europe’s opens. That extended eventually to a 3-point deficit from yesterday’s cash session close to 2160.75.
If, then…
The overnight high was the first probe into last Thursday’s range since Friday’s break under it. The gap up that was indicated initially overnight must be recaptured pre-open in order to resume the rally this morning. That’s both because gapping up would dismiss the rally not having gained traction yesterday afternoon, and because the rally has been tenuous anyway. Add to this that natural resistance at last Thursday’s “higher prior lows” are not being tested. The alternative isn’t necessarily for the trend to reverse back down, but there is plenty of room below for backing-and-filling.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2163.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2167.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2155.75 would be likely to trigger the 2157.50 bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2170.00 would be likely to trigger the 2167.00 bias-up signal.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2174.25 | 2167.00 |
| …would target | 2178.00 | 2172.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2164.75 | 2157.50 |
| …would target | 2159.25 | 2152.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Well, that worked out well. The morning’s anchor rescued the market from its slide to the bias-down signal. And then some. The 21-point intraday rally still didn’t gain traction beyond fulfilling its sponsorship. So, gapping up again is necessary for reliably extending the rally without further delay. Backing-and-filling for the morning could still resolve in a rally,
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.