Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2176.75 | 2169.25 |
| …would target | 2183.00 | 2175.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2168.75 | 2161.25 |
| …would target | 2162.50 | 2155.00 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Fallen, and refuses to get up.
Gap down sticking to yesterday’s lows.
The last-minute attack on 2167.50 was already retraced to open back at yesterday afternoon’s 2164.25 low. That soon gave way to attack this morning’s 2161.25 bias-down signal to within 2-3 ticks. But it wasn’t touched.
Not touching the bias-down signal means it can’t actually hold and be rejected. No offsetting test of the bias-up signal is required. No-bias did signal, so this is likely the morning range’s lower-end. But there’s no assurance it isn’t also its upper-end.
Back above 2164.75 would start to suggest a bounce is underway. No requirement to test the 2172.50 bias-up signal, except that it lies on the path to fulfilling yesterday’s unfinished business above at 2175.50. End exiting the bias environment under its 2161.25 bias-down signal would more likely trend down.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The overnight drop hasn’t extended down, at least not yet. Meanwhile, pre-open action just attacked yesterday’s 2167.50 open/close as resistance. Rallying this morning depends a lot on recovering positive territory much sooner rather than later. But holding within yesterday’s range above 2164.25-2165.00 would be a little less likely to trigger bias-down.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Same apple, second bite.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Thursday’s gap up to 2167.50 still had room to test “higher prior lows” at 2172.50, which it did, and which it held. Its eventual reaction down attacked 2164.00 during the afternoon’s bias-up environment. That bias-up influence enabled a complete recovery to retest 2172.50. But it didn’t prevent another dip closing essentially unchanged from the opening print. That’s a lot of intraday volatility, in a moderate range, to net no movement from the open. “Unfinished business above” was left outstanding at the afternoon’s 2175.50 bias-up target.
Overnight action’s new info…
Can other bias-up influences rescue another drop? Narrow ranging around Thursday’s 2167.50 open/close extended into Europe’s opens. A blip-up to 2169.50 was reversed down more substantially to probe under Thursday’s lows to 2163.25. Its recovery attempt is testing the initial overnight range’s lower-end.
If, then…
Thursday afternoon’s probe of fresh session lows developed during a bias-up environment. That context had all but assured it wouldn’t extend, and in fact, its recovery probed back above its origin. Momentarily, which was long enough to validate the context. Having lapsed, the bias-up environment no longer offers context. But Thursday afternoon’s bias-up target remains outstanding, and should ultimately prevent extending down. Leveraging this attraction above would help to recover the overnight probe under yesterday’s lows — whether before the open, or after gapping down. Since yesterday’s ranging gained no traction for the overnight rally’s effort, probing fresh highs today without gapping up would be very vulnerable to reversing back down sharply Regardless, this being a Friday, the morning’s bias tends to extend through the noon hour.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2163.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2161.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2159.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2180.00 | 2172.50 |
| …would target | 2185.00 | 2177.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2168.50 | 2161.25 |
| …would target | 2162.50 | 2155.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.